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Football
Tony's Bowl Tip Sheet -- Part III -- January's Best
By Tony Gerdeman

Finally, the main course hits the table. Enough with the carrots and cauliflower of bowl season. Bring on the meats!

Still, I hate the fact that the first part of this main course is all Big Ten games on at the same time. Especially since our attention will be turned to Ohio State for the most part, meaning we will miss seeing Michigan State and Nebraska lose to the SEC.

Actually, now that I think about it, maybe this is a good thing.

Monday January 2

Ticket City Bowl (Fair Park, TX)
Teams:  #19 Houston (12-1) vs. #22 Penn State (9-3)
Time (TV):  12:00 pm (ESPNU)
Interest:  4
Cheer For:  Penn State

Yeah, I didn't like typing “Cheer For:  Penn State” anymore than you liked reading it, but this is what bowl season reduces us to. Like every other bowl this season, this one is being coached by interim head coaches and therefor carries with it the all too well-known of the unknown. To make matters worse for Penn State, or better, quarterback Matt McGloin is out for this game. They will have to rely on Robert Bolden for an entire game. Predict at your own peril. Houston hasn't seen a defense like Penn State's, so they should create some problems for the Cougars' offense. But will they be able to score enough points to win any type of moderate shootout? Houston comes into this game off of a loss in the C-USA Championship Game. Their hopes for a BCS bowl were dashed, and along with head coach Kevin Sumlin leaving, they probably aren't too stable mentally right now. Meanwhile, Penn State's football team is probably looking forward to playing a football game more than anything in the world right now just so that they can have some say on how the 2011 season ended. Or not. Regardless, I can't go with Penn State given how bad they are on offense. Houston 27 - Penn State 17

Outback Bowl (Tampa, FL)
Teams:  #17 Michigan State (10-3) vs. #16 Georgia (10-3)
Time (TV):  1:00 pm (ABC)
Interest:  4.5
Cheer For:  Michigan State

Georgia is on a bit of a roll right now, aside from their blowout loss in the SEC Championship Game. They went into that game against LSU on a ten-game winning streak, so don't expect one game against the best team in the nation to slow down their pace. Like the Bulldogs, the Spartans also come into this contest following a loss in their conference championship game. This is the third time these two teams have met in a bowl game, with Georgia winning both. The Spartans will want to attack quarterback Aaron Murray the same way LSU did, and with their defensive line, this is a distinct possibility. Still, until Michigan State is actually competitive in a bowl game, I can't pick them to beat the “second-best team” in the SEC, even if I think they're the better team. Georgia 24 – Michigan State 23

Capital One Bowl (Orlando, FL)
Teams:  #9 South Carolina (10-2) vs. #20 Nebraska (9-3)
Time (TV):  1:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest:  2.5
Cheer For:  Nebraska

Nebraska gets welcomed to the Big Ten – SEC rivalry in winnable fashion, if they weren't Nebraska, that is. I expect South Carolina to run the ball well with quarterback Connor Shaw and tailback Brandon Wilds, and I also expect the Gamecocks defense to make life miserable for Taylor Martinez and the Husker running game. This will be one of those games that I won't be too unhappy to have missed because I don't expect it to be very pleasing to my eye bones. South Carolina 27 – Nebraska 17

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL)
Teams:  Florida (6-6) vs. Ohio State (6-6)
Time (TV):  1:00 pm (ESPN2)
Interest:  5
Cheer For:  Ohio State

My pick of Ohio State in this game is based on two things—Florida's lack of offense, and Braxton Miller. The Buckeyes have had troubles tackling this season, but that shouldn't be too much of a problem if the Gators' tiny tailbacks are running between the tackles. Running wide has never been overly wise against this team, but the Gators have the speed to get the edge. Ohio State's defense will just have to make sure they don't. The Buckeye offense will look a bit different in this game simply because they've had time to add some things. The most important thing that could have been added, however, is simply more experience for Braxton Miller. If his accuracy is where it needs to be, then there's no doubt the Buckeyes should win this. I'm choosing Miller, and both his arms and legs, over John Brantley. Don't be surprised when Miller catches a touchdown pass in this game. Ohio State 24 – Florida 17

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA)
Teams:  #10 Wisconsin (11-2) vs. #5 Oregon (11-2)
Time (TV):  5:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest:  5
Cheer For:  Wisconsin

Funnily enough, this is a matchup between the 45th (Oregon) and 46th-ranked (Wisconsin) rushing defenses in the nation. Both teams will be tested as Oregon averages 295.7 yards rushing per game, and the Badgers tip the scales at 237.4 yards rushing per game. Whichever team more closely matches their averages should win. Oregon has had issues when it comes to games like this, though I think Wisconsin is clearly a notch below past games for the Ducks against “rough and tumble” opponents. In the end, however, I question Wisconsin's defensive speed, and if they miss any tackles, it will cost them six points more than a couple of times. Oregon 38 – Wisconsin 34

Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, AZ)
Teams:  #3 Oklahoma State (11-1) vs. #4 Stanford (11-1)
Time (TV):  8:30 pm (ESPN)
Interest:  4
Cheer For:  Oklahoma State

We're cheering for Oklahoma State just so that there will continue to be a valid argument that the Pokes should have been in ESPN's national championship game. Our cheering will likely be rewarded as well. Stanford has played well, but they haven't been dominating like Oklahoma State. There will be a ton of scoring in this game because the Cowboys don't have a defense, but they don't really seem to care. I just think Oklahoma State will be more explosive, and if they get up by more than ten points, it will be hard for Stanford to turn the tables. Oklahoma State 48 – Stanford 42

Tuesday January 3

Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, LA)
Teams:  #11 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #13 Michigan (10-2)
Time (TV):  8:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest:  5
Cheer For:  Michigan

Yes, I know you can't cheer for Michigan. I know it every time. Please stop commenting about it. If Michigan is going to win this game, they would be wise to follow Clemson's lead from a month ago in the ACC Championship Game. They defeated the Hokies 38-10 and did it by stuffing the run and making quarterback Logan Thomas beat them on every snap. Michigan has some very successful blitz packages that will try to force Thomas into bad decisions. A few blindside shots could see Thomas put the ball on the ground pretty easily. But this is all under the assumption that they will be able to slow down tailback David Wilson, who has rushed for 1,627 yards and nine touchdowns this season. He is fast and elusive, which is a combination that used to give this defense trouble. But this isn't just about Virginia Tech's offense, because Michigan brings in a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in quarterback Denard Robinson and tailback Fitzgerald Toussaint.  However, just like Michigan is going to try and force mistakes from Logan Thomas, so Virginia Tech is going to try to force mistakes from Robinson. And, as Michigan fans have seen all season long, you don't have to force Robinson very hard to make mistakes. For that reason alone, I have to take the Hokies. Virginia Tech 27 – Michigan 26

Wednesday January 4

Orange Bowl (Miami, FL)
Teams:  #15 Clemson (10-3) vs. #23 West Virginia (9-3)
Time (TV):  8:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest:  4
Cheer For:  West Virginia

There really is no reason to cheer for one team over the other, so do whatever your better half tells you to do, per usual. I'm looking forward to this game because it should absolutely be a shootout, provided West Virginia doesn't blow it. We should all just be thrilled that there's actually an interesting Orange Bowl to watch this year. We could have all been stuck trying to find something else to watch, and right now there isn't crap on. Clemson 38 – West Virginia 27

Friday January 6

Cotton Bowl (Arlington, TX)
Teams:  #8 Kansas State (10-2) vs. #6 Arkansas (10-2)
Time (TV):  8:00 pm (FOX)
Interest:  3
Cheer For:  Kansas State

I'll be rooting for Kansas State to win this game, but I hope the win isn't later vacated and then forced to be ignored and talked about only under your breath as if it was something to be ashamed of, like cutoff shorts at an indoor family reunion. While I like the Wildcats' boring offensive attack, I don't think they'll score enough to win. This isn't a vote against Kansas State's offense, it's a vote against their defense. Arkansas 35 – Kansas State 24

Saturday January 7

BBVA Compass Bowl (Birmingham, AL)
Teams:  SMU (7-5) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6)
Time (TV):  1:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest:  1.5
Cheer For:  SMU

What a mess this game is. June Jones was almost leaving SMU for the Arizona State job a few weeks ago when suddenly the Sun Devils decided to go with Pitt coach Todd Graham instead. Graham resigned at Pitt to take the Arizona State job, sending a text message to be read to his players about his decision. It would not be a surprise if Pitt's players wanted to end the 2011 season and just move on with new head coach Paul Chryst next week. Instead of moving on, however, they will have to play under their fifth head coach in the span of 13 months. SMU, meanwhile, takes the field in this game knowing that their head coach tried to leave them, and they do so without 1,200-yard rusher Zach Line in the lineup. Line, out with season-ending surgery, provided a chain-mover on the ground for Jones' passing prevalence. To top it all off, this game is being played in Birmingham, Alabama. This bowl game is the poster child for “the team who doesn't want to be here the least will win.” This game is going to be ugly and is impossible to pick correctly. I don't know how SMU is going to run the ball, and if they throw it every time, then that will let Pitt's defense know what's coming. I'll go with Pitt because that's what the quarter told me to do. Pittsburgh 21 – SMU 17

Sunday January 8

GoDaddy.com Bowl (Mobile, AL)
Teams:  Arkansas State (10-2) vs. Northern Illinois (10-3)
Time (TV):  9:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest:  3
Cheer For:  Northern Illinois

While it's ridiculously out of place in January, this game should actually be one of the more entertaining matchups of the bowl season. Both offenses can move the ball through the air and on the ground, so a shootout is quite likely. Arkansas State has had the better defense this year, but Northern Illinois has too much going for it on offense to lose to the Red Wolves, who will be led by an interim head coach. Northern Illinois 37 – Arkansas State 30

Monday January 9

BCS National Championship Game (New Orleans, LA)
Teams:  #1 LSU (13-0) vs. #2 Alabama (11-1)
Time (TV):  9:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest:  5
Cheer For:  LSU

We're cheering for LSU because Alabama doesn't deserve this national championship. I'm expecting a fairly similar game to the first meeting, except there will actually be touchdowns this time. People say that Nick Saban can't lose twice to the same team in the same season, but people also sing along to Toby Keith songs, so what do they know? With Jordan Jefferson established as LSU's quarterback, they will be able to move the ball in different ways. It will free up things downfield and the Tigers will take advantage. LSU contained Trent Richardson on the ground the last time out, and I expect them to do the same thing again. Richardson will likely be leaving for the NFL after this game, which means he already has a foot out the door. LSU 20 – Alabama 14

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