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Football
Tony's Tip Sheet
By Tony Gerdeman

For all intents and purposes—or for those of you from the southwest portion of Ohio—for all intensive purposes, the Buckeyes once again control their own destiny for a Big Ten Championship.

Despite the turmoil of the last ten months, we are back to where we always used to be.

Yes, Ohio State needs Penn State to lose twice to completely control their own destiny, but there isn't any sane person on the planet that thinks the Nittany Lions aren't going to lose two more times. After all, they finish by hosting Illinois and Nebraska before heading to Ohio State and then Wisconsin. There are two losses in there somewhere.

None of it really matters without a win by the Buckeyes on Saturday night, but everybody already knows that that's absolutely happening, so there's really no need to discuss it much further.

Besides, there are too many other good games to discuss, like Virginia at Miami! Wait, what?

Thursday October 26

Teams: Virginia (4-3) at Miami (FL) (4-3)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest: 1
Cheer For: Miami (FL)

Cheering for Miami is not an easy thing to do, but what fun is life if you don't challenge yourself? I will challenge myself by seeing which I can do longer—hold my breath while wrapped in a curtain of flames while being mauled by an enraged syphilitic bear, or root for Miami. Go curtain fire! Miami 27 – Virginia 13

Teams: Rice (2-5) at #17 Houston (7-0)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (FSN)
Interest: 2.5
Cheer For: Houston

Boy, aren't you tired of hearing all of this talk about Houston deserving a shot at the BCS national title? What's that? There hasn't been any talk of Houston deserving a shot at the BCS national title? Oh, that's right, because people have been too busy claiming that the loser of the LSU – Alabama game deserves a shot. The Cougars actually have a pretty decent shot to get through the season undefeated. They have three cakewalk games against Rice, UAB and Tulane, who are a combined 5-17 at the moment. They finish with a home game against SMU, then head to Tulsa. Tulsa is currently tied for first in the division with Houston at 3-0. The winner will then go on to play in the CUSA Championship Game. Houston is currently leading the nation in scoring (49.3 ppg) and passing yards (441.7), and they should be able to meet both of those averages if they want to. Houston 52 – Rice 17

Friday October 27

Teams: TCU (5-2) vs. BYU (6-2) (Arlington, TX)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest: 2
Cheer For: BYU

We're cheering for BYU for no reason in particular, which is why most people cheer for them. Expect this to be a low scoring game. If you had bet the under in BYU's last 16 games, you would've won 13 times. If you would've bet the under in BYU's last 16 games, I would say that you were likely a sorcerer or a fixer. I would take the under in this game as well, except for the fact that BYU sucks against decent opponents, and TCU would fit that description. TCU 41 – BYU 20

Saturday October 28

Teams: #11 Michigan State (6-1) at #14 Nebraska (6-1)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest: 4.5
Cheer For: Michigan State

I've decided to have America root for the Spartans because they're like that family friend who you can call when you need somebody whacked. Every family has one of those guys, and we are no different. Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Michigan State is going to be able to stop the Nebraska running game, and Taylor Martinez will be able to stop the Nebraska passing game. I don't like taking the Spartans on the road in Lincoln, but I'm just doing what my brain is telling me to do. I also think the Huskers will turn the ball over, which will make things even more difficult. As long as Kirk Cousins doesn't have one of his four customary regression games per season, I just don't see how the Spartans lose. They're five-point underdogs. I can't believe I'm misreading this game so confidently. Michigan State 24 – Nebraska 20

Teams: Purdue (4-3) at #18 Michigan (6-1)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ESPN2)
Interest: 4
Cheer For: Michigan

We are cheering for Michigan because we want to see the Wolverines make the Big Ten Championship Game so that the Buckeyes can beat them two weeks in a row. Yes, I know it's a long shot because Michigan isn't likely to be there, but we can hope, can't we? If Purdue plays two halves like the first half they played last week against Illinois, then they can pull off the upset here. They will try to run the ball in order to keep Denard Robinson on the sideline (which might be a mistake) and burn the clock. They want to shorten this game as much as possible. The Wolverines have had a week off to refresh their batteries and solidify the kinks on offense. I'm down on Michigan right now, but not down enough to actually take the Boilermakers. Michigan 26 – Purdue 17

Teams: North Carolina State (4-3) at Florida State (4-3)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ESPNU)
Interest: 2.5
Cheer For: Florida State

We're cheering for Florida State because North Carolina State coach Tom O'Brien is a complete jerk! He drove Russell Wilson out of Raleigh and chased him to Wisconsin. That should not go unpunished! Who does this? “You! Hey you! You've got too much talent. You sicken me! Now get out of my sight!! Alright, now that that dude is gone somebody bring me my sucky quarterbacks.” Florida State 31 – North Carolina State 19

Teams: Northwestern (2-5) at Indiana (1-7)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (BTN)
Interest: 2.5
Cheer For: Indiana

This would not be a good loss for Pat Fitzgerald, but since each of his losses are instantly forgiven because he is a loyal son, it wouldn't really matter too much. Last week against Iowa true freshman Tre Roberson got his first start at quarterback for the Hoosiers and performed extremely well in the 45-24 loss to the Hawkeyes. In fact, Roberson became the first Hoosier true freshman to ever start at quarterback. He rushed for 84 yards and completed 16-24 passes for 197 yards and a touchdown. There's no reason he can't do similar things this week—other than the fact that he's a true freshman and things can suddenly go from great to terrible in the span of minutes. This might be Indiana's last best chance for a win this season, and it would be a slight coup for Kevin Wilson. After all, if he's ever going to get a better job, he needs to start beating teams that aren't much better than his, but I just can't pick the Hoosiers yet. Sorry. Northwestern 31 – Indiana 27

Teams: #22 Georgia (5-2) vs. Florida (4-3) (Jacksonville, FL)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (CBS)
Interest: 3
Cheer For: Georgia

The Bulldogs have only beaten Florida three times since 1990—that's 21 games worth of Gator domination. Georgia is favored in this game, as they should be, but Florida is getting quarterback John Brantley back this week, so the offense should now be able to move forward because without him they were stuck in reverse. Remember when Bo Duke was racing on a dirt track and something happened to his car that kept him from driving forward, so he ended up having to win the race driving in reverse? Well, clearly Bo Duke is a much better offensive coordinator than Charlie Weis. Yes, Weis may have the Super Bowl rings, but Bo Duke beats all you never saw, and he's been in trouble with the law since the day he was born. That has to count for something. Also, remember the episode with the “ghost of the General Lee”? That was an awesome episode. I'll never know how Bo and Luke kept from busting out laughing. Stupid Roscoe. I'm gonna go ahead and take the Bulldogs in this one. Getting Brantley back will help, and it won't just help the passing game, it will also running back Chris Rainey, who has done nothing of late. As long as Aaron Murray doesn't throw the game away for Georgia, I think they'll figure out a way. Georgia 27 – Florida 23

Teams: Illinois (6-2) at #19 Penn State (7-1)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (ABC/ESPN2)
Interest: 3.5
Cheer For: Illinois

We're cheering for the Illini because Penn State needs two losses in conference play if the Buckeyes are going to jump them in the standings. Lest you think we are wasting our rooting breath by cheering for Ron Zook, I would like to remind you that Ron Zook GAVE YOU PEOPLE a win over Illinois two weeks ago. Show some frigging gratitude! I actually think Illinois can pull this game off, but Nathan Scheelhaase will need to stop reading the “How We Made Juice Williams A Better Player Year By Year” handbook that Zook gave him. To be honest, Scheelhaase is a much better quarterback when he can be a complementary player. Right now he's the entire offense, and that's too much for him at the moment. Penn State will exploit that and make enough plays on offense to win. Keep an eye on running back Silas Redd, who is averaging 141.5 yards rushing per game in Big Ten play. His “low game” in conference play is 129 yards. If Illinois can control Redd they absolutely have a chance in this one. Penn State 24 – Illinois 16

Teams: Baylor (4-2) at #3 Oklahoma State (7-0)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (ESPN2/ABC)
Interest: 3
Cheer For: Oklahoma State

Some people might expect this to be a shootout, but it will only be a shootout after the fact. Oklahoma State will control this game from the outset. Baylor may put up five touchdowns or so, but they'll never be within ten points in the fourth quarter. This is one of those games that will feature entertaining offenses and lots of people in the crowd shooting finger guns. Remember, finger guns are the pathway into your cold, black soul. Oklahoma State 58 – Baylor 31

Teams: #25 West Virginia (5-2) at Rutgers (5-2)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (ABC)
Interest: 4
Cheer For: Rutgers

Paralyzed former Scarlet Knight Eric LaGrande will be leading Rutgers out of the tunnel on Saturday, so the Mountaineers will have to withstand the emotion of the first quarter if they want to win this one. If they can do that, then they've got a pretty good shot. However, this West Virginia team hasn't shown much in the way of heart, especially when you take last week's 49-23 loss at Syracuse into consideration. If Rutgers can get up on them early, perhaps they can make the Mountaineers quit. I don't really know how Rutgers is winning, other than the fact that they play in the Big East. They are 112th in the nation in rushing, averaging just 91.7 yards rushing per game. They don't pass the ball much better than they run. I just don't think they can keep up with the pace of West Virginia's offense. Barring one of those freakish games where everything goes right for Rutgers, I'll take the Mountaineers in this one all day long. I don't feel good about it, mind you, but then I never really feel good when Rutgers is involved. West Virginia 28 – Rutgers 14

Teams: #9 Oklahoma (6-1) at #8 Kansas State (7-0)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (ESPN)
Interest: 4.5
Cheer For: Kansas State

A week or two ago I think I said that I wouldn't be picking against Kansas State anymore. I was clearly lying if I actually did say that. Let's be honest, who would actually say something so foolish and mean it? If people are going to start holding me to the things that I say, then I'm going to stop writing them down. That's a promise! Two weeks ago Kansas State went to Texas Tech and came away with a 41-34 win. Last week, those same Red Raiders went to Norman and came away with a 41-38 upset of the undefeated Sooners. It's okay to think that this storybook season will continue for Kansas State, but don't get upset when the Wildcats don't live happily ever after. In this analogy, Bob Stoops is the Big Bad Wolf, and Bill Snyder is Red Riding Hood's grandmother. Oklahoma 34 – Kansas State 21

Teams: Iowa (5-2) at Minnesota (1-6)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (BTN)
Interest: 1.5
Cheer For: Minnesota

Eww, gross. If we stepped on this game, we wouldn't even bother cleaning our shoes—we'd just throw them out. Jerry Kill got a contract extension, so obviously Minnesota really liked it when he won that one time. Iowa will probably give up a few points, but if they give up enough to lose, Kirk Ferentz should just take himself out of the Coach of the Year running right now. As an aside, the Hawkeyes need this win to stay in the hunt in the Leaders division. Iowa 28 – Minnesota 10

Teams: #13 South Carolina (6-1) at Tennessee (3-4)
Time (TV): 7:15 pm (ESPN2)
Interest: 1.5
Cheer For: Tennessee

If you like offense, then you might want to occupy this game and protest it. After all, 99% of the suck this week will be because of 1% of the games—and this game is that one percent. The Vols are starting freshman Justin Worley at quarterback. His next pass will be his first one. South Carolina hasn't' done much better, but at least they know what a completion looks like. This will be one of those classic offensive struggles that gets labeled a defensive slugfest because it's taking place in the SEC. South Carolina 10 – Tennessee 3

Teams: #5 Clemson (8-0) at Georgia Tech (6-2)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ABC)
Interest: 4.5
Cheer For: Clemson

It's eventually going to happen—Clemson is going to lose. and this is as good a week as any. Except it's late in the season and the Tigers will have seen all that Georgia Tech can do. The Yellow Jackets have lost two in a row, which makes this win over Clemson almost inevitable. I really wish that I didn't have to pick this game because I know I'm going to get it wrong. I also know that as this game is unfolding, I'll be telling myself, “I knew I was wrong! I'm such a stupid idiot. Did I turn the curling iron off?” Georgia Tech has allowed 24 points per game to their last two opponents, which equates to about 38 points for Clemson. I'm foolishly taking Clemson even though I totally know they're going to lose. Though if I was so confident, you'd think I'd actually take them. Clemson 41 – Georgia Tech 31

Teams: #6 Stanford (7-0) at USC (6-1)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ABC)
Interest: 4.5
Cheer For: Stanford

The Cardinal rushed for 446 yards last week in their 44-point win over 25th-ranked Washington. They had two 100-yard rushers and a third with 93 yards. They are going to attempt to do the same thing against USC, and they'll be fairly successful, which will then make quarterback Andrew Luck all the more dangerous. By the way, Stanford's smallest margin of victory so far this season is 26 points. I think USC will keep it much closer than that, but they just don't have the defense to keep Stanford off the board like they'll need. Stanford 34 – USC 28

Teams: #15 Wisconsin (6-1) at Ohio State (4-3)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest: 5
Cheer For: Ohio State

I'm torn on whether or not Wisconsin losing last week was a good thing or a bad thing for this game. On one hand, it's good that the Buckeyes saw that the Badgers can bleed. On the other hand, Wisconsin is now going to come into this game as angry as they've been in a long, long time. After the first quarter however, none of that will matter and it will eventually come down to blocking and tackling. Ohio State's linebackers are going to be under the microscope, and for good reason. If they can't keep Montee Ball and James White from the second level, it will be time to find guys who can. The defensive line is good enough to do damage against the Badger offense, but they're going to need help from everybody else to clean up the messes. The Buckeyes should be able to run the ball with Boom Herron, but if they can't throw the ball, it won't matter. The players and coaches are saying Braxton Miller is a completely different quarterback than he was three or four weeks ago, but will it matter if he isn't given a chance to show it? If this is the Miller we saw against Nebraska, then the Buckeyes can absolutely win this game, but if it's windy, then passing is scary! Pray for calm, Buckeye fans.

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