Rating the Big Ten football schedules

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Last updated: 05/11/2011 3:06 AM
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Football
Rating the Big Ten Schedules
By Tony Gerdeman

In college football, the only thing that can trump talent and coaching is your schedule.

You can have the best coach in America and more talent than you can stand (literally), and if you don't have the right schedule, it's just not going to happen for you.

Look at Alabama last year. Defending national champions, returning eight starters on offense, and four future first-round picks...but six of their conference opponents had bye weeks before they played the Crimson Tide.

Alabama went 3-3 in those six games and finished fourth in the SEC West.

The schedule matters.

Heck, the only time Northwestern has won Big Ten Championships in football over the last 75 years is when Ohio State is off of their schedule.

Speaking of which, I guess we should keep an eye out for the Wildcats this season.

(Note:  The schedules are ranked in order from least difficult to most difficult.)


1. Illinois

Any team with talent wants to have their toughest opponents at home, and that's exactly what the Illini get this season with Ohio State and Wisconsin both coming to Champaign-Urbana. Three of their four road games are remarkably winnable, and they manage to avoid Michigan State, Nebraska, and Iowa. Even for Ron Zook, this has the makings of an eight-win season pretty easily.


9/3 Arkansas State
9/10 South Dakota State
9/17 Arizona State
9/24 Western Michigan
10/1 Northwestern
10/8 at Indiana
10/15 Ohio State
10/22 at Purdue
10/29 at Penn State
11/5 Bye
11/12 Michigan
11/19 Wisconsin
11/26 at Minnesota

2. Iowa

Granted, Iowa State and Pitt gussy up the schedule because they're BCS schools, but let's not forget that they're still just Iowa State and Pitt. Road games against Penn State and Nebraska are the only likely losses on the schedule, and getting the Spartans and Wolverines at home is a plus. Northwestern is still on the schedule, so Iowa won't go undefeated. Avoiding Illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio State is pretty spectacular as well.


9/3 Tennessee Tech
9/10 at Iowa State
9/17 Pittsburgh
9/24 Louisiana-Monroe
10/1 Bye
10/8 at Penn State
10/15 Northwestern
10/22 Indiana
10/29 at Minnesota
11/5 Michigan
11/12 Michigan State
11/19 at Purdue
11/25 at Nebraska (Friday)

3. Wisconsin

A typical Bielemian non-conference schedule should put the Badgers at 4-0 before they start their Big Ten schedule. Granted, their bye week prior to facing the Hoosiers does them absolutely no good, but other than the two road games at Michigan State and Ohio State, they'll be favored in every other game on their schedule. Missing Iowa, Northwestern and Michigan means they'll be avoiding three bowl teams this season. They've gone 4-4 against those three teams since 2008, by the way.



9/1 UNLV (Thursday)
9/10 Oregon State
9/17 Northern Illinois (Chicago)
9/24 South Dakota
10/1 Nebraska
10/8 Bye
10/15 Indiana
10/22 at Michigan State
10/29 at Ohio State
11/5 Purdue
11/12 at Minnesota
11/19 at Illinois
11/26 Penn State

4. Northwestern

Given Northwestern's ownership of the Iowa Hawkeyes, the only unwinnable road game on the Wildcats' schedule may be their trip to Lincoln in November. Having a bye week before traveling to Illinois is advantageous, but preparing too much for Ron Zook seems like a waste of time to me. Northwestern avoids Ohio State and Wisconsin, which means their record is going to be two wins better than it could've been.



9/3 at Boston College
9/10 Eastern Illinois
9/17 at Army
9/24 Bye
10/1 at Illinois
10/8 Michigan
10/15 at Iowa
10/22 Penn State
10/29 at Indiana
11/5 at Nebraska
11/12 Rice
11/19 Minnesota
11/26 Michigan State

5. Ohio State

An early-season trip to Miami is daunting, but in a normal year for the Buckeyes it would be less so. The game at Nebraska is the most challenging game on the schedule. The bye week prior to the Wisconsin game is a blessing, and closing with Penn State and Michigan is something the Buckeyes are not unaccustomed to. Not having to deal with Iowa is always a plus, but missing out on the annual blowouts of Minnesota and Northwestern is a negative.



9/3 Akron
9/10 Toledo
9/17 at Miami FL
9/24 Colorado
10/1 Michigan State
10/8 at Nebraska
10/15 at Illinois
10/22 Bye
10/29 Wisconsin
11/5 Indiana
11/12 at Purdue
11/19 Penn State
11/26 at Michigan

6. Purdue

Notre Dame is the extent of Purdue's non-conference schedule, and this year the Irish come to West Lafayette. The conference road schedule isn't kind, but if the Boilers can split, they'll be ahead of the game. A 5-0 start is not out of the question, and avoiding Nebraska, Northwestern and Michigan State should be reflected on their eventual record. An upset of Ohio State or Iowa could have the Boilermakers looking at eight or nine wins.



9/3 Middle Tennessee
9/10 at Rice
9/17 SE Missouri State
9/24 Bye
10/1 Notre Dame
10/8 Minnesota
10/15 at Penn State
10/22 Illinois
10/29 at Michigan
11/5 at Wisconsin
11/12 Ohio State
11/19 Iowa
11/26 at Indiana

7. Penn State

The Alabama game looms, but to be honest, the first nine games on this schedule are winnable before the ugly finish. Fortunately, they're boosted by a bye week prior to the Nebraska game. Ending the season with consecutive trips Columbus and Madison will make Penn State fans long for the glory days of the Land Grant Trophy. The Nittany Lions dodge Michigan, Michigan State and Minnesota, but is that really a good thing?



9/3 Indiana State
9/10 Alabama
9/17 at Temple
9/24 Eastern Michigan
10/1 at Indiana
10/8 Iowa
10/15 Purdue
10/22 at Northwestern
10/29 Illinois
11/5 Bye
11/12 Nebraska
11/19 at Ohio State
11/26 at Wisconsin

8. Michigan

The Wolverines don't leave home until an October 8th trip to Evanston, and everybody knows that's always a home game for the bigger schools in the conference anyway. With only four road games, Michigan's schedule sets up very nicely though they'll need to finish strongly as the last four games are all iffy. They avoid Wisconsin, Penn State and Indiana, which is an obvious plus.



9/3 Western Michigan
9/10 Notre Dame
9/17 Eastern Michigan
9/24 San Diego State
10/1 Minnesota
10/8 at Northwestern
10/15 at Michigan State
10/22 Bye
10/29 Purdue
11/5 at Iowa
11/12 at Illinois
11/19 Nebraska
11/26 Ohio State

9. Minnesota

Beginning the season at USC means they'll be 0-1, but what else is new? Starting the conference schedule with two road games also means they'll likely get a bad start there as well. They'll then be facing five straight weeks of possible January bowl teams before ending with Illinois. Not having to play Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana was simply the Big Ten's way of throwing the Gophers a lifejacket out in the middle of a shark-infested ocean.



9/3 at USC
9/10 New Mexico State
9/17 Miami OH
9/24 North Dakota State
10/1 at Michigan
10/8 at Purdue
10/15 Bye
10/22 Nebraska
10/29 Iowa
11/5 at Michigan State
11/12 Wisconsin
11/19 at Northwestern
11/26 Illinois

10. Michigan State

Early-season games at Notre Dame and Ohio State could either derail a promising season or propel it. Having a week off prior to playing Michigan is always nice. But following that with Wisconsin and Nebraska isn't. Having Minnesota and Iowa on the schedule is obviously a plus, but they're sprinkled in between three very rough road games. They miss Purdue, Illinois and Penn State, and their record could very well reflect it come December.



9/2 Youngstown State (Friday)
9/10 Florida Atlantic
9/17 at Notre Dame
9/24 Central Michigan
10/1 at Ohio State
10/8 Bye
10/15 Michigan
10/22 Wisconsin
10/29 at Nebraska
11/5 Minnesota
11/12 at Iowa
11/19 Indiana
11/26 at Northwestern

11. Indiana

The Hoosiers' schedule is always more difficult than most conference teams because they don't get to play Indiana. While their non-conference schedule isn't bad - though only getting two home games is ridiculous, the conference slate has the appearance of 6-8 losses. They'll lose their conference road games by 30 ppg. They were given no quarter by the Big Ten conference, despite not having to face Nebraska, Michigan and Minnesota.



9/3 Ball State (Indianapolis)
9/10 Virginia
9/17 South Carolina State
9/24 at North Texas
10/1 Penn State
10/8 Illinois
10/15 at Wisconsin
10/22 at Iowa
10/29 Northwestern
11/5 at Ohio State
11/12 Bye
11/19 at Michigan State
11/26 Purdue


12. Nebraska

The Huskers will be indoctrinated into Big Ten football with extreme prejudice by starting out at Wisconsin and then heading back home against the Buckeyes. They'll get a week to recover, and likely use it, prior to beginning the rest of their conference schedule. They'll face the best the Big Ten has to offer, as evidenced by the fact that the three teams they miss will be Indiana, Purdue and Illinois. That being said, they did get favorable home and road matchups, getting both the Buckeyes and Spartans in Lincoln.



9/3 Chattanooga
9/10 Fresno State
9/17 Washington
9/24 at Wyoming
10/1 at Wisconsin
10/8 Ohio State
10/15 Bye
10/22 at Minnesota
10/29 Michigan State
11/5 Northwestern
11/12 at Penn State
11/19 at Michigan
11/25 Iowa (Friday)



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