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Football
Big Ten Countdown - Number One (Tie)
By Tony Gerdeman

1. (tie) Wisconsin Badgers

Predicted Finish

11-1 (7-1)

Two-Cent Overview

Ten starters return from last year's top scoring offense in the Big Ten, led by a bullish yet dynamic running back, and your typically solid Badger quarterback. The defense somehow needs to replace three starters up front, but they have some versatility to work with, which should make things easier. The secondary returns three starters, but overall, they're still not one of the best units in the conference.

Schedule

Sept. 4 at UNLV (W)
Sept. 11 San Jose State (W)
Sept. 18 Arizona State (W)
Sept. 25 Austin Peay (W)
Oct. 2 at Michigan State (W)
Oct. 9 Minnesota (W)
Oct. 16 Ohio State (W)
Oct. 23 at Iowa (L)
Nov. 6 at Purdue (W)
Nov. 13 Indiana (W)
Nov. 20 at Michigan (W)
Nov. 27 Northwestern (W)

Team Motto

“[Inaudible grunts followed by helmets smashing]”

Goal

A BCS bid. They can talk about a national championship all they want, but the Badgers might first want to concentrate on finishing in the top two in the Big Ten and getting to the BCS for a change. Wisconsin is one of only five Big Ten teams to have failed to reach the BCS in the 2000s. Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan State and Minnesota are the others. Further salt for the wound: Illinois has been there TWICE.

Best Case

An undefeated season. As long as the Badgers don't beat themselves, they're going to be very hard to defeat.

Worst Case

The schedule is so easy, if they don't win at least eight games this season, Bret Bielema should work for free in 2011.

Five Questions Looking For Answers

1. Can quarterback Scott Tolzien avoid the mistakes and reduce his eleven interceptions from last season.
2. How big is 'too big' for John Clay?
3. How does Wisconsin replace defensive end O'Brien Schofield's 12 sacks and 24.5 tackles for loss?
4. Are there two quality defensive tackles on this roster?
5. Can this veteran, but maligned secondary outplay their expectations?

Something To Look For

The most talented stable of Badger running backs in a long time. Everybody knows about John Clay and his 2,401 yards rushing and 27 touchdowns in two seasons, and people got to see a little bit of freshman Montee Ball last year. There's also the old vet Zach Brown still hanging around, having rushed for 1,152 yards in his first three years. The newest guy to watch for this year will be true freshman James White, who has impressed in practice and routinely rips off 20-yard runs like it's his birthright. Given how deep and talented the first three levels of tailbacks are, it speaks to how the staff feels about White that they don't even seem to be considering redshirting him. Don't be surprised if he jumps Zach Brown at some point.

Returning Starters

Ten on offense, six on defense and both kicking specialists.

Best Player

Running back John Clay. Clay could have declared for the NFL last year as a third-year sophomore, but elected to come back for another year because facing Michigan's 3-3-5 defense was likely too enticing to pass up. When Clay first got to Wisconsin, he looked a lot like Beanie Wells. However, the longer he stays in Madison the more he begins to look like David Wells. But as long as the production balloons, it probably doesn't matter what the pant size does.

Second-Best Player

Left tackle Gabe Carimi. Carimi is already being talked about as a first-round NFL draft pick next April, and for good reason. He was a first team all-conference pick last season and now has 36 starts under his belt. He's one of the driving forces behind Wisconsin's running game, and their tremendous play-action effectiveness.

Best Chance For a Big Loss

At Iowa. If the Badgers do happen to come into this game undefeated, it will be exactly one week after an emotional win over Ohio State. Will they have enough left in the tank to do it all over again—and on the road?

Most Important Game

Ohio State. Unless they trip up in East Lansing, the Badgers will come into this game undefeated and ranked somewhere in the Top Ten. If they beat Ohio State, they'll vault into the Top Five and be in a tremendous spot as they'll still have half a season to watch those in front of them fall away while they slowly move up into one of the top two spots.

Best Road Game To Pack Up The Family Truckster And Travel To

At Michigan. Granted, the seats are terrible, the view is mediocre, the stadium is underwhelming, the game experience is lacking, the architecture was done mostly by a shovel, the crowd is lost in denial, the traffic reminds you of Beijing, the talent on the field would disappoint 1990s-era Prairie View A&M football, the food is Gas Station-y at best, and the place smells like crotch, but it's still a fun place to watch a game. If a bunch of you show up wearing red, the Wolverines generally fold and the fans leave by the middle of the third quarter.

Best Reason They Won't Be Undefeated

The defense. Last season, the defense gave up 21.8 points per game, and now they have to replace nearly half of those responsible. Everything starts up front, and right now defensive end J.J. Watt is the only guy the coaches know they can count on. Of course, this time a year ago, nobody knew O'Brien Schofield was going to be the second coming of Vernon Gholston, so all may not be lost quite yet. Still, championship teams generally don't allow three touchdowns per game to their opponents.

Best Reason They Will Be Undefeated

The offense. There's no learning curve with this offense. Every game is an open-book test, and they've had the answer key for the last 20 years. To call it “clockwork” would be an insult to the Badger offense, because the Swiss have nothing on Wisconsin. The running game will always work because the offensive line will always maul. The play-action will always work because the running game will always work. When you add in the fact that the Badgers recruit very talented players, it makes their system all the better.

Game They Shouldn't Lose, But Could

Northwestern. The Badgers and Wildcats have split their last four meetings, though the home team has won every time. Northwestern's quick passing game could pose problems for a team that will play mostly nickel and rely heavily on the blitz. A questionable secondary and a bunch of moving parts could spell trouble against Northwestern's precision offense.

Player People Are Expecting Too Much From

Linebacker Chris Borland. The reigning Freshman of the Year in the Big Ten, Borland impressed from his first day on campus and quickly turned that into playing time. He played in all 13 games and ended up starting in five, finishing the season with 54 tackles, 5.0 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss. He pretty much made his fame with his effective blitzing from Wisconsin's Badger package, which is essentially a 3-3-5 nickel defense where Borland is told to kill the quarterback. He will be better this year, but he's also no longer an unknown. It would be best to forgo massive expectations and just be thrilled with the production like you were last year.

Player People Will Be Pleasantly Surprised By

Linebacker Mike Taylor. Taylor was also playing as a freshman last year, and there are many who will tell you that Taylor was the better player. However, a knee injury cut his season short after seven games—all starts, and when he left, he was actually leading the team in tackles. Taylor is more under control, but because he wasn't running around late in the year making highlight plays in the backfield, Chris Borland gets more pub. He is, however, currently dealing with another slight knee issue, but the recovery has gone so well that he could make the season opener. If he's not held back by injuries this season, it would be a surprise if he doesn't lead the team in tackles.

Best Newcomer

Defensive tackle Beau Allen. A team that is thin on defensive tackles doesn't sign one of the nation's best defensive tackle prospects and then not play him. (Unless you're Michigan, I guess.) Allen has the size (6'3” 325) and strength (380 bench; 600 squat) to make an immediate impact and should show up in the initial two-deep. He's already gotten some time with the first team in practice, and his coaches say that not only is he bigger than anybody else they have, but he's quicker too. That's a combination that has to find its way to the field.

Something They Do Well

Utilize the tight end. Last season the tight ends on this team caught 80 passes. The year before that it was 69, and the year before that it was 105. Garrett Graham caught 51 passes last year, but is gone now. Lance Kendricks now assumes the role of “most favored tight end”, and with it will come copious amounts of pigskin. The question that remains, however, is who will be the second tight end in Wisconsin's two tight end system? Keep an eye on freshman Sherard Cadogan, who has gotten more opportunities since back-up tight end Brian Wozniak fractured a shoulder in practice. Oh, and don't be surprised to see J.J. Watt at tight end in goal line situations. He's practiced there a bit of late, and was a tight end at Central Michigan before transferring to Wisconsin.

Something They Don't Do So Well

Win on the road in the Big Ten. Since Bret Bielema has been the head coach at Wisconsin, the Badgers have a 10-9 record on the road in conference play, and that's including his inaugural season which saw them go 3-1. And don't forget, the Badgers gave Rich Rodriguez his first Big Ten win. In fact, Bielema will be taking his third crack at his first win in Michigan Stadium this season. If he doesn't get it, he should work for free in 2012.

What's Improved?

The offensive line. The entire group returns, but there's still some reshuffling going on as they look to get their best five men on the field. If there is a new starter on this line, it won't be an indication of somebody falling back, but rather somebody else stepping forward.

What's Gotten Worse?

The defensive line. Not only is O'Brien Schofield gone, but so are starting defensive tackles Dan Moore and Jeffrey Stehle. The coaches are looking for a good four-man rotation inside, and if they can't find it, then they may have to slide J.J. Watt down more than they anticipated. As of now, there will probably be two freshmen—one of them redshirt freshman Jordan Kohout—in the two deep, and they will likely be on the field together at times. The replacement for Schofield, as if there could be such a person, will be Louis Nzegwu, who isn't cut from much different cloth than Schofield. He's a speed rusher with size and in limited snaps has been effective. We probably shouldn't expect a dozen sacks, but he could definitely be around 8-10.

Anything Else We Should Know About?

Even though the secondary returns three starters, one of them appears to have lost his job. Cornerback Devin Smith started all 13 games last season, but has been beaten out for the job this year by junior Antonio Fenelus. Smith is currently the team's number one nickel back, so he will still have a role on this defense considering how often they like to employ their Badger package. By the way, the free safety spot will be manned by Aaron Henry, who has started five games in his career at cornerback and battled injuries all along the way. The hope is that he can get back to the potential he showed prior to the injuries.

Anything Else?

The receivers may not be deep, but they are effective. The Badgers return their top three receivers from last season, and that's probably all they'll need. Nick Toon finished the year with 805 receiving yards, and should better that this season without a second tight end to steal 40 catches from the receivers. Isaac Anderson and the ever-possible David Gilreath return to continue living under the conference's wide receiver radar, but they'll both take on increased roles this year.

One Prediction

The Badgers will have three running backs rush for 100 yards in a game. (No, not the same game...wait...okay, maybe Michigan.)

Quote Mistakenly Attributed To Vince McMahon On The Occasion Of Some Overly Rambunctious Rough Housing By The Honky Tonk Man

"I see him throwing people on the ground too much, making me mad. I just warned him in front of everybody. I'm going to let the next guy he throws down, throw him down." – Bret Bielema

Coach Speak

“I love the Ohio State-Michigan game. Before I was playing college football I watched that game. It's what it is. I'd like to have that tradition for ourselves, whether it's Minnesota, whether it's Iowa, whether it's Nebraska.” – Bret Bielema

Translation

“I love meaningless October games!”

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