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Football
Big Ten Countdown - Number 8
By Tony Gerdeman

8. Michigan

Predicted Finish

6-6 (3-5)

Two-Cent Overview

Without a doubt, there is more depth on this team than Rich Rodriguez's previous two efforts, but there are very few positions settled. Save for receiver and the interior of the offensive line, starters won't be known on offense until a few days prior to their season opener against Connecticut. Even then, things could be fluid throughout the season. The defense...well, a two-cent overview won't cover it, though it may actually be more settled than the offense. Now whether that's actually a good thing or not, we'll find out pretty quickly.

Schedule
Sept. 4 Connecticut (W)
Sept. 11 at Notre Dame (L)
Sept. 18 Massachusetts (W)
Sept. 25 Bowling Green (W)
Oct. 2 at Indiana (W)
Oct. 9 Michigan State (W)
Oct. 16 Iowa (L)
Oct. 30 at Penn State (L)
Nov. 6 Illinois (W)
Nov. 13 at Purdue (L)
Nov. 20 Wisconsin (L)
Nov. 27 at Ohio State (L)

Team Motto

“All in for Michigan. I suppose. If I have to.”

Goal

Play thirteen. Back in 2007, when Michigan was gearing up for a title run, “Play 13” was Indiana's rallying cry. Now, the Wolverines find themselves in Hoosier-like surroundings and a bowl game would be welcome relief. For about five months, anyway.

Best Case

Nine wins is conceivable, but they'd have to beat at least two of Notre Dame, Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State, while beating everybody else on the schedule. Of course, Rodriguez does have some precedence against a few of these teams. His first conference game at Michigan was a win against the ninth-ranked Wisconsin Badgers. Last year, he beat 18th-ranked Notre Dame and played #12 Iowa pretty tough. Even though he's lost his two games against Penn State by an average of 27 points, who knows what the Nittany Lions are going to look like this year. It's not out of the realm of possibility to think that there are two wins somewhere in those five games. (However, one of them will NOT be in Columbus.)

Worst Case

Two wins. The only automatic wins on the schedule are Massachusetts and Bowling Green. Everybody else absolutely could beat Michigan. We are giving Michigan the benefit of much doubt this season with the prediction of six wins—especially given the fact that we gave them no such benefits last year and predicted 5-7. If things don't sync up like they should, the Michigan newspapers won't have to go spelunking for bad news—they'll be able to find it right on the surface.

Five Questions Looking For Answers

1. Is quarterback Denard Robinson really a real quarterback? Really?
2. Can Rich Rodriguez's famed running game find a running back who can handle 200 carries?
3. Do they even need one?
4. Will Michigan's spread defense come equipped with white flags against power running teams?
5. Seriously, how do you lose Brandon Graham and get better?

Something To Look For

Replacing Brandon Graham will be a team effort. The defensive line may lose Graham's 10.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss, but they're planning on making it up via a little thing called “improvement across the board”. It's not out of the realm of believability to think that last year's defensive line starters Craig Roh, Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen have improved since last season. Roh played on the defensive line as a skinny freshman last year, and also had coverage duties. This year, he's bigger, stronger and more knowledgeable about what is need from him. Add in nose tackle Will Campbell, all 330-odd pounds of him, and you finally have a plugger that will allow Mike Martin to slide over and become a playmaker again. Backup Greg Banks is a versatile senior who provides depth, and keep an eye out for redshirt freshman Anthony LaLota, and true freshman Jibreel Black, who has impressed everybody who gets to see him.

Returning Starters

Seven on offense, eight on defense.

Best Player

Cornerback Troy Woolfolk. Woolfolk had to switch between safety and cornerback last year, but when he finally landed at cornerback, he found a home. Now he is an established leader on the team and will be counted on to secure his side of the field on every snap, and he's more than capable. He could be Michigan's most consistent cornerback since Leon Hall, though it will be interesting to see if Michigan continues to have one of their cornerbacks play off their man in an effort to help out the lone deep safety. Given his experience as both a safety and cornerback, he'd seem suited for the role, but as the team's best cornerback, maybe he could be better utilized shutting his man down instead of allowing catch after catch three yards in front of him.

Second-Best Player

Defensive tackle Mike Martin. Last year, Martin had a bit of a disappointing season after an impressive freshman campaign in 2008. However, he was playing out of position and was also nursing an injury. This year, he's healthy and no longer playing nose tackle, so he'll be a bit more free to get into the backfield this year.

Best Chance For a Big Loss

At Notre Dame. Brian Kelly is the type of coach that if he can exploit a weakness, he'll keep doing it until he can't do it anymore. Given the weapons in the passing game that the Irish will have (assuming quarterback Dayne Crist is capable), expect to see Michigan's secondary attacked. Oh, and don't forget about tight end Kyle Rudolph. If the Wolverines somehow get stuck with a linebacker on him, big trouble will ensue. Basically, if Michigan can't move the ball, things could get out of hand in this one.

Most Important Game

Michigan State. A loss in this game will make it three in a row for Sparty over Michigan which would be the first time that has happened since 1965-67. This will be the Wolverines' second conference game, which means a win could either put them at 2-0 in the conference, or stop the bleeding from a loss at Indiana. Either way, a loss for Michigan in this game signifies that Little Brother is the little brother no more. Mom and Dad will sit Michigan and Michigan State down and finally reveal that the Wolverines were adopted. Which, of course, would suit Michigan just fine.

Best Road Game To Pack Up The Family Truckster And Travel To

At Penn State. If the Penn State students don't consider Michigan a big enough opponent to warrant a White Out, then maybe you and your family can travel to Happy Valley and stage a Maize Out.

Best Reason They Won't Be Undefeated

Quarterbacks have to pass. All signs seem to be pointing to Denard Robinson as the starting quarterback for the Wolverines this season. He's apparently looked pretty good so far, concentrating mostly on shorter passes—which is pretty normal in Rodriguez's offense. But third and long with Robinson is a dangerous combination for the Wolverines. Much of his appeal is that defenses don't know if he's going to run, pass or handoff. On third and long, two of those options are gone and defenses will be able to dictate what Robinson does with the ball. Yes, he'll be able to scramble for quite a few third and longs, but it's not a winning plan of attack.

Best Reason They Will Be Undefeated

The schedule isn't terrible. Aside from the road game in Columbus, there aren't any unwinnable games on the schedule. Even the Ohio State game used to be a game where records didn't matter. As an aside, this is exactly the same conference schedule Ohio State had last season, except Ohio State played Minnesota last year instead of Michigan State. Advice: Watch out for those pesky Boilermakers.

Game They Shouldn't Lose, But Could

Bowling Green. The problem with this question as it relates to Michigan is that there are only two teams on the schedule that the Wolverines shouldn't lose to. Now that doesn't necessarily mean they SHOULD lose to everybody else, it just means that everybody else is very capable of beating this team as things stand right now. Fortunately for Michigan, the games aren't being played right now.

Player People Are Expecting Too Much From

Safety Cameron Gordon. Gordon is slated to be the deep safety in this 3-3-5 defense, which will see the other two safeties playing closer to the line of scrimmage. This means there will be times when the deep safety is all alone out there, which has been an immense problem for Michigan over the last few years. The one thing Gordon (6'3” 207) does have going for him is that he's not Jordan Kovacs or Mike Williams—both of whom tried and failed to man the deep safety spot last year. Gordon's life would also be made much easier by an effective pass rush, which may or not be a reality for the Wolverines. And don't forget, there will be some freshmen cornerbacks in the two-deep this season as well, which will only make Gordon's job all the more stressful.

Player People Will Be Pleasantly Surprised By

Right guard Patrick Omameh. Omameh played in a handful of games last year as a redshirt freshman, and at times showed that he had a bright future in this offense. He came to Michigan a 250-pound project, but now he's added nearly 50 pounds to his frame and maintained the level of mobility that Rodriguez prefers from his offensive linemen. As Omameh gets stronger and learns to use his hands and body even more, the raw ability should start to mesh nicely with the teaching he receives.

Best Newcomer

Outside linebacker/safety Thomas Gordon. Gordon is one of four candidates to play Stevie Brown's position from last year. It was the move to this hybrid role that saw America's most abused defensive back became one of the better defensive playmakers in the conference. Gordon isn't the biggest guy (5'11” 205), and nobody really knows how he covers or supports the run. However, this is a pretty straightforward position to play, so it seems it would be ideal for a young athletic type. If Gordon doesn't win this job and true freshman Josh Furman (6'2” 200) does, then let's change our pick for Best Newcomer to Furman, who seems absolutely tailor-made for this role.

Something They Do Well

Spread the ball around. As many as three quarterbacks could handle the ball this year, and even more running backs. There are outside receivers, slot receivers and even rumors of a tight end or two running around. Unfortunately, there may not be a go-to guy among them, though receiver Roy Roundtree comes the closest. There are plenty of players to get involved on offense, but if Michigan wants to have a more consistent attack, they need some regulars to step up and take a heavier load.

Something They Don't Do So Well

Keep a team that wants to run the ball from running said ball. Last season, the Wolverines finished last in the Big Ten in rushing defense in conference games. They gave up 22 more yards per game than tenth-place Indiana. However, Michigan's front four will be bigger this year, so that could slow things down for the opposition. Though somebody will still need to tackle the ball-carrier.

What's Improved?

The quarterback's potential in the running game. Provided the coaching staff has finally taught Denard Robinson how to run the zone read, it would seem that Rodriguez's type of quarterback has finally emerged from the ashes. (Is this where the “We told you so's” concerning a passing quarterback in a Rodriguez offense go?) There is no doubting Robinson's ability with the ball in his hands, and even though he was bottled up against quality teams for the most part last season, everybody knew what he was doing. This year, there should be a little bit of mystery, which will make him an even more dangerous playmaker.

What's Gotten Worse?

Experience at quarterback. Yes, last year's starter Tate Forcier returns, but if he's not taking the majority of the snaps this season, then the Wolverines are starting all over again and putting yet another new starter out there to experience a whole season of firsts. Denard Robinson threw 31 passes last season—four of which were intercepted. Now you have to go from a freshman (Tate) who started twelve games last year and saw everything the Big Ten had to offer, to a sophomore (Robinson) who threw an interception every eighth pass attempt. Yes, Robinson is semi-experienced, but he's far from as experienced as Forcier. Defenses haven't even tried to trick him yet. When you add in the fact that Forcier may not even be able to hold off true freshman Devin Gardner, the experience falls further and further away. The good news, however, is that if it's good enough, talent trumps experience every single time.

Anything Else We Should Know About?

Michigan's kicking game could be in the hands of a pair of freshmen. Redshirt freshman place-kicker Brendan Gibbons battled for the job last season before losing it to walk-on Jason Olesnavage. This year, Gibbons will battle another walk-on with an even harder-to-spell name. The punting will be in the highly-touted hands (and foot) of Will Hagerup. So far he's been what the coaches have expected and is showing a strong leg. Both freshmen will be in tough spots this season, and if they need to be counted on in the close games, chances are they'll come up short a time or two.

Anything Else?

The linebackers are still an issue. Despite the fact that defensive coordinator Greg Robinson now coaches the linebackers, things here are still wonky. Senior walk-on fullback Mark Moundros asked to be switched to linebacker in the spring after seeing a chance for him to help the team. Which has to make you wonder how bad things must have looked for him to think he'd have a shot. Yet now here he is, smack in the middle of a position battle with Obi Ezeh. Oh, and by the way, the best thing Robinson has been able to say about Ezeh this summer is that he has “good intentions”. Which is essentially like saying, “Well, he's not trying to hurt us on PURPOSE.” He's just doing it accidentally. Jonas Mouton seems to have his spot locked up next to Ezeh, and Robinson has raved about his ability so far. It's time for Mouton to take the next step, however.

How About A Bonus Topic

The running backs are still trying to separate themselves, and so far they've been unsuccessful. From an outsider's perspective, Vincent Smith (5'6” 180) is never going to be an effective lead running back in the Big Ten. Neither is Michael Shaw. The two to keep an eye on this season will be Michael Cox and redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint. Cox played some last year and is similar to Brandon Minor in some ways. Toussaint has jitterbug moves in a compact 200-pound body and can put his helmet down and take the ball up inside. Rodriguez is looking to rotate three running backs this season. Right now I'm expecting it to be Smith, Cox and Toussaint.

One Prediction

When Michigan beats Michigan State this season, it will make for Mark Dantonio's best and most uncomfortable postgame press conference ever. Oh, and the postgame handshake should be very warm and gracious as well.

Quote Mistakenly Attributed To Charlie Weis circa August of 2008

“But since the day we've gotten on campus, they [the fans] have been overwhelmingly positive. And there's always going to be some negativity, particularly when you don't win. But that comes with the deal. Comes with the profession. I think you understand it. Nobody wants to win more than the coaches and players. But our fans have been absolutely phenomenal. And the support we have when we go out and talk to different alumni groups has been fantastic. We're fortunate to be at a place where they're very passionate about football, and our fans are very passionate about it. And you want to coach at a place like that. We've got great fans, and I hope we can reward them with more wins and better football. And I think that's coming.” – Rich Rodriguez

Coach Speak

"Will Hagerup will be what we thought."

Translation

“Zoltan? We don't need no stinking Zoltan!”

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