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Football Ohio State vs. Toledo Preview By Tony Gerdeman |
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For only the second time in these two schools’ histories, #11 Ohio State (1-1) and Toledo (1-1) will meet on the football field.
The Buckeyes won the first matchup 49-0 in 1998. In that game, eleven different Buckeyes carried the ball, ten caught it and five threw it.
This week’s game will be played in Cleveland, but it will be considered a home game for Toledo. The Buckeyes are 8-6-1 all-time in Cleveland and haven’t lost there since Case bested them 14-10 in 1910.
Ohio State is 25-1 in its history against MAC schools. Their only loss came to Akron in 1894, which happened about 52 years prior to the founding of the Mid-American Conference. The Rockets, on the other hand, are 5-13 against the Big Ten (which includes last season’s upset victory at Michigan).
The Buckeyes are 176-48-15 against in-state opponents. Their last loss came in a 7-6 defeat at the hands of mighty Oberlin in 1921.
Toledo is the only school in the nation that is undefeated against both Michigan and Penn State (2-0), with both wins coming in the last ten years—and both on the road.
When Toledo Has The Ball
The Rockets run a fast-paced, high-motored spread offense and they do it very well. So far this season against two BCS conference opponents (Purdue and Colorado), the Rockets are averaging 558.5 yards of total offense per game and scoring 42.5 points along the way.
Quarterback Aaron Opelt actually leads the nation in total offense, averaging 437 yards from scrimmage per game. His 371 yards passing per game ranks fourth in the nation, as does his 28 completions per game. But as Colorado will tell you, he’s not just a passer. Last week against the Buffs, he carried the ball eight times for 109 yards and two touchdowns, including a 61-yard jaunt for a score.
Toledo’s spread offense isn’t one that just relies on quick passes and screens, though they are still a large part of the offense. The Rockets will go down field plenty, and they have some very good receivers to work with. Senior Stephen Williams opened the season with a 15 catches for 185 yards against Purdue, but battled injuries last week and didn’t record a single reception. Even though Williams took a goose egg last week, he’s still tied for second in the MAC with 7.5 receptions per game and is sixth in yards per game with 92.5. If he is healthy, he provides Aaron Opelt a sizable target (6’5” 199) to rely upon.
Perhaps the surprise of the offense, however, has been true freshman receiver Eric Page. Like Williams, Page is also averaging 7.5 receptions per game. Against Purdue, however, he only had three catches…but those three catches accounted for 138 yards, including a 70-yard touchdown. Page isn’t the biggest target (5’10” 165), but the Rockets don’t shy away from sending him downfield.
The third receiver to key on is sophomore Kenny Stafford. Stafford is another big target (6’4” 195) who stepped up in Williams’ absence last week and pulled down four catches for 88 yards and a touchdown.
It’s pretty clear that the Buckeyes are going to be in their nickel defense for most of this game. Whether that means starting strong safety Jermale Hines moves back to his old spot at the Star (nickel) position or not remains to be seen. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hines and backup safety Anderson Russell sharing the duties.
Last week against USC, cornerbacks Chimdi Chekwa and Devon Torrence both had terrific games. But this week, they will be much busier. Stafford and Williams both pose size mismatches and Eric Page will likely provide a quickness mismatch against whichever safety or linebacker is covering him in the slot.
Toledo’s offensive line has only given up one sack to this point, and it was only for a loss of one yard. Aaron Opelt won’t hold the ball too long, unless they’re looking for a deeper route. Given the Buckeyes’ ability to cover and the speed that they will bring off the edges, the Rockets’ sack number should make a bit of a jump this week.
Defensive lineman Cameron Heyward had his way with the USC offensive line for much of the game last week and he will undoubtedly look to continue the momentum. He will again line up everywhere, and given Toledo’s penchant for passing, we will probably see Heyward line up at defensive tackle quite a bit.
Heyward on the inside paves the way to get defensive ends Thaddeus Gibson and Nathan Williams on the field together. Gibson has yet to record a sack, but that will likely change this week.
Toledo isn’t just a passing team, however, as they are currently averaging 187.5 yards rushing per game. The main contributor to those numbers is senior DaJuane Collins, who is averaging 93.5 yards rushing per game. We will also see the return of suspended running back Morgan Williams this week. Last year, he led the team in rushing with 1,010 yards, including a 330-yard outburst in a win over Miami (OH).
The Buckeye linebackers are going to have to be alert all game long because of the Rocket running threat. Leading tackler Brian Rolle may be an ideal fit against this offense because of his speed and ability to change directions. Weakside linebacker Ross Homan showed his ability to drop into the passing zones last week with an interception against USC, and he will likely be doing more of that this week. Because of Toledo’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly, it might not be a bad idea to send a few blitzes in order to throw the offense’s timing off.
As far as special teams are concerned, the lone bright spot is place-kicker Alex Steigerwald. Even though he is only 3-4 this season on field goal attempts, all of his attempts have come from at least 43 yards out. His only miss is a 50-yarder. In fact, if he gets enough attempts this season, he’s actually on pace to become the NCAA’s second-most accurate place-kicker of all-time.
Punter Bill Claus hasn’t been very busy this season as he has only punted six times (with one block). He is averaging 37.7 yards per punt, but two of his kicks have been touchbacks and one landed inside the 20. They may be vulnerable on punt returns, however, having allowed a 30-yarder already this season.
The Rockets haven’t shown much in the return game. In fact, they have yet to gain a single yard returning a punt (one return total). Freshman Julian Bellinger is the team’s leading kickoff returner, having already busted a return for 60 yards. However, even with the 60-yarder, his ten total returns are only averaging 20.1 yards.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
If ever there was a week for the Ohio State offense to make some noise, this is it. Toledo has generously been giving up an average of 45 points per game this season and doesn‘t seem too eager to stop. They are equally susceptible to the run (205 ypg) or the pass (288 ypg), so the Buckeyes’ biggest dilemma should be which to choose, and when.
Toledo is starting three true freshmen (both cornerbacks and the free safety) in the secondary, so quarterback Terrelle Pryor should be able to find some open receivers. The leader on defense is four-year starter Barry Church. Church is a safety who plays the Star position for Toledo. He is a three-time all conference player and has started every single game in his Rocket career. He’s big (6’2” 219), so he’s able to play his position like a linebacker against the run, yet still maintain his coverage and ball-hawking skills (nine career interceptions). Although, of his nine interceptions, seven did come in his first two seasons.
Receiver DeVier Posey had a bit of a breakout against USC last week, catching six passes for 81 yards. This should be the first 100-yard game of his Buckeye career.
Given Toledo’s youth in the secondary, as much as Jim Tressel seemingly hates to do it, it might serve the Buckeyes well to throw the ball a ton this week--and continue to do so well into the second half. This offense needs confidence right now, and this Rocket defense will provide it if you let them. These non-conference games are supposed to prepare your team for the conference schedule, so why not exploit an area where both the Buckeyes and the Rockets have struggled?
The Buckeyes should be able to continue e the passes to the tight end from the Navy game and the passes to the running backs from the USC game, specifically the continued use of running back Brandon Saine. There are mismatches to be posed by this Ohio State offense, but the coaches need to start finding them.
The receivers shouldn’t be the only unit having a good day, as the running game looks capable of breaking out against the Rockets as well. The Purdue Boilermakers rushed for 315 yards against Toledo, so there’s no reason the Buckeyes can’t rush for at least 200.
The unit paving the way for both the passing game and the running game will be without the services of right tackle Jim Cordle. Cordle provided a versatility and leadership that will have to be picked up by the remaining four linemen. In his place, sophomore J.B. Shugarts should get the start and it will be interesting to see how he holds up. Much has been expected of Shugarts and the Buckeyes will need him to realize his potential sooner rather than later.
Toledo only has four sacks on the season and two of them were by freshman safety Jermaine Robinson. They will likely have to bring blitzes in order to get pressure on Terrelle Pryor. The Rockets won’t be able to keep Pryor contained in the same manner that USC did, so the Buckeye quarterback should be more free to roam this week.
Not only are sacks a rarity for this Rocket defense, but so are tackles in the backfield. The Buckeyes should rarely be facing second and long unless it’s due to an incompletion on first down.
Bottom line, if the Buckeyes don’t have a banner day on offense, then either they didn’t try, or they’re just not capable right now.
The Ohio State special teams have performed well to this point. Punter John Thoma had a fantastic game against USC, putting four of his six punts inside the 20-yard line. Place-kicker Aaron Pettrey remains perfect on field goals this season, making all five attempts.
Opponents have yet to make a mark in the return game against the Buckeyes and this week should be no exception. Ohio State, on the other hand, seems about ready to break a long one. Between Brandon Saine and Lamaar Thomas, the Buckeyes should get a few chances this week.
How It’ll End Up
The Buckeyes will be itching to perform well and playing away from home may allow them to focus a bit more.
Head Coach Jim Tressel knows his offense needs to build confidence and he will allow them to do so this week. Running back Boom Herron will have his most productive day as a Buckeye and Terrelle Pryor will throw for over 200 yards in the first half.
Toledo won’t go quietly, however. This is an offense with more weapons than most. They are fast and precise. Fortunately, the defense is a versatile lot, so even with a no-huddle offense, they shouldn’t be caught with too many matchup problems.
If there is one area of concern for the Buckeyes, however, it would likely be defending the slot. Will it be Jermale Hines, Anderson Russell or a linebacker covering Eric Page? No matter who it is, they can’t allow any yards after the catch because this defense is going to be spread out, so there will be running room after a missed tackle.
But we’ve all seen this game before. Toledo will move the ball early, but eventually they will bog down. The Rockets will score a couple of times in the first half, and then a couple more in the fourth quarter.
The Buckeyes, on the other hand, will be scoring all day long.
Or at least they better be.
Ohio State 44 - Toledo 20
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