Football
Michigan Monday
By Tony GerdemanMost everybody agrees that this year’s version of Michigan football is better than last year’s version. But the real disagreement comes when we start talking about the degree to which 2009 is better than 2008.
After Saturday’s 38-36 loss at home to Purdue, the Wolverines are now going to have to upset either Wisconsin or Ohio State in order to equal last year’s conference record of 2-6.
Let me repeat that: They are in danger of having more conference losses THIS year than last year. And let’s not forget that last season’s 3-9 record saw the most losses in one season in Michigan’s history--by two games!
Yes, Michigan already has more overall wins this year than they did last year, but the record that truly tells us where they stand is their Big Ten record. And right now they are in the middle of losing five conference games in a row, and have given up 30 or more points to every conference opponent this season except for Michigan State (who only scored 26 against them).
If this is “better”, I would hate to see worse.
But we have to assume the team is better because there are times when it’s actually looking better. Last year Michigan strove for competence; this year they’re shooting for consistency. Both seasons they have failed to meet the mark at times, but at least their intentions are getting bolder.
Though all of this talk about being better begs the question: If the team actually is better, why don’t the results reflect it? People can talk about Michigan being better both on paper and on the field all they want, but until the scoreboard agrees, what does it matter?
There is no excuse for incompetence. But there IS an excuse for inability. When you combine them both, however, the excuses start to ring hollow.
Eventually optimism has to give way to proof, and potential to results.
But until they do, there’s always next year.
Until there isn’t, of course.
When Michigan Was On Offense
The Wolverines’ on-again, off-again struggles on offense can basically be boiled down to two or three things. The first is having a freshman quarterback. There are always going to be times when an offense led by a freshman quarterback is going to look like a Chinese Fire Drill without a car to go back to. The second is the offensive line. The loss of center David Molk has been felt every week. And he’s not been the only injury. It’s difficult to know just how good this line can be if they can’t all get on the field at the same time. The third reason for the struggles could probably negate much of the second: Brandon Minor can’t stay healthy. When he’s in the game, this is a different offense--it’s a better offense, even if the record doesn’t show it.
It’s almost comical to look at Brandon Minor’s stats this season. He has only been able to play substantial minutes every other game this year. He even started the season injured, missing the opener. Here are his carries listed in successive order from week one: 0, 16, 3, 12, 4, 22, 0, 12, 1, 19. And true to form, he’s currently nursing a shoulder bruise and a dinged ankle. This means we should probably expect light work in Madison this week as he prepares for double-digit carries against the Buckeyes.
With Minor healthy enough to handle a workload, this offense is averaging 171.8 yards rushing per game. In conference games where Minor has been AWOL (Michigan State and Illinois), the Wolverines are averaging just 70.5 yards rushing per game--or 101.3 yards fewer than when he is healthy. That’s a sizeable impact--whether the wins and losses reflect it or not.
In the five games that Minor has been able to be a focal point, the Wolverines are only 2-3, including just 1-3 in conference play. In Saturday‘s loss, he dominated the game, rushing for 154 yards and three touchdowns on just 19 carries. He had 102 yards rushing and two touchdowns on just six carries at the 14:52 mark of the second quarter. But only saw the ball 13 mores times the rest of the game. And he missed a series when he was hurt getting tackled on a near breakaway in the second half. I have no doubt that Rich Rodriguez would love to run him more, but every carry for Minor increases the risk of fumbles or injuries. And he’s the best offensive player the Wolverines have.
For the game, Michigan rushed for 215 yards on 44 attempts. They were very effective on the ground, though Tate Forcier probably handled the ball too much. He had several nice runs and a few quality scrambles, but he just carried the ball too many times against Purdue. Every carry Forcier gets is another carry that Minor doesn‘t. Forcier gained 70 yards on 18 carries, but he lost 38 due to tackles behind the line of scrimmage and four sacks. The sacks only accounted for a loss of 17 yards, though. He was responsible for losing the other 21 yards on his own.
After Purdue took the lead 31-30 via a crazy set of circumstances late in the third quarter, the Wolverines went three and out and didn’t even get Minor a sniff. In fact, from the time Purdue finally took the lead (after being down 30-17), Tate Forcier carried the ball eight times and Minor only carried it seven. I’m no Michigan State grad, but even I know Minor needs to carry the ball more than Forcier.
I’ll finish off this Minor essay by asking what Michigan is going to do next year without him? Where are they going to find a punisher that can hit a hole like Minor and actually break through a wall? I happen to be a big fan of redshirt freshman Michael Cox. After all, he’s virtually identical to Minor in appearance, and he has shown explosion in the two games he has carried the ball this year (Eastern Michigan and Delaware State). But I’m not sure that you can pin your hopes and dreams of carrying on Brandon Minor’s fury and flash on a kid who has carried the ball thirteen times in his career to this point. This offense has shown that it absolutely needs Minor in order to move the ball. Will that need somehow suddenly end in 2010?
A positive note this week was that Tate Forcier looked more like the early season Forcier that everybody used to love, as opposed to the recent incarnation that has driven Michigan fans to expletivia (“expletivia” is the opposite of “euphoria“ and centers around profanity)
Forcier finished the game 15-24 for 212 yards and had a 43-yard touchdown pass. The protection broke down a few times (and he held the ball too long a few times as well) and he just wasn‘t as accurate on the move as he has been, but he threw the ball well enough to win.
Perhaps the most positive aspect of the game, however, was the emergence of slot receiver Roy Roundtree, who finished the game with ten catches for 126 yards, including the aforementioned 43-yard touchdown pass. Roundtree has been playing due to Martavious Odoms’ injury, but it’s looking like Odoms has been Wally Pipped. Roundtree has had more positive impact in the last two weeks than Odoms has had in nearly two years. There is still a place in this offense for Odoms, but it’s going to have to be somewhere else.
Speaking of finding places for people, Denard Robinson needs to be moved already. In Michigan’s last three conference games (all losses), Robinson has completed one pass, has thrown one interception and has rushed for eleven yards on seven carries. He did have one carry this week while in the backfield with Forcier, but he lost three yards. If you’re not going to use him on offense, why not see what he can do on defense? He was recruited by many as a defensive back, and Michigan needs defensive backs like soup needs crackers. I know it’s not really a viable suggestion right now, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t get a few looks in practice to see if it’s something to explore further.
I’m just trying to help.
When Michigan Was On Defense
Just like last week when Rich Rodriguez benched his three-year starting middle linebacker Obi Ezeh in order to get more speed and athleticism on the field, walk-on Kevin Leach got the start again this week. Leach had an interception on a tipped pass, but other than that, he wasn’t very noticeable.
His counterpart, weakside linebacker Jonas Mouton was benched immediately following a blown assignment when both he and safety Mike Williams decided to cover a tight end running a one-yard drag route, which left running back Ralph Bolden free to skip down the field on a wheel route, scoring from 35 yards away.
Linebacker J.B. Fitzgerald stepped in for Mouton and played pretty well for a while, until he was benched for missing a tackle on one of Ralph Bolden’s touchdown runs in the third quarter. Even though he made some mistakes, he also made some positive plays that he hadn’t done all season. He showed some glimpses and was able to skate past blockers, but he just wasn’t always able to make the tackle. He will get better and I think he could do fairly well next year. Unless, of course, he gets the same type of regression-based coaching as Jonas Mouton and Obi Ezeh.
When you’re talking about the Michigan defense, however, how many different ways can you write the same article? Purdue amassed 494 yards of total offense and they were trying to milk the clock the last half of the fourth quarter. Quarterback Joey Elliott threw for 367 yards on 28-39 passing. He threw two touchdowns and two interceptions (both tipped) and was only sacked once.
The Boilers were masters of spreading the Michigan defense out and getting mismatches in the passing game. Linebacker Stevie Brown was again targeted successfully, as he has been repeatedly these last few games. As offenses have begun dictating how Brown is to be used, his effectiveness has waned substantially.
Cornerback Donovan Warren was also attacked repeatedly in this game. He was no longer playing his normal ten yards off the line of scrimmage, as he was now only eight yards from the receiver. I believe Michigan calls this “press coverage”. Warren routinely gave up easy catches on stop routes and out routes. Purdue rarely had to deal with third and long, and many times it was because of these easy gains on early downs.
Of course, any discussion of the pass defense has to end up with the safeties. Following a successful onside kick by Purdue, free safety Jordan Kovacs was targeted on the next play as Elliott went deep to Cortez Smith for a 54-yard touchdown. Kovacs had his eyes on the quarterback the entire time and bit up on a little shoulder fake. He only started playing deep when it was too late.
It makes you question what the coaches have Kovacs and company focusing on. These Wolverine safeties defend the deep ball about as well as the left field wall in home run derby.
You wonder when it’s going to get better, and when it does get better, you wonder just HOW MUCH better it will get. There are freshmen on this roster who are getting redshirted who should be able to help next year…once the staff decides which positions they’re going to play, of course.
One area of concern, however, is the current recruiting class. Of the eight currently-committed defensive players--all of whom are out of state recruits, only one of them (safety/linebacker Marvin Robinson) was offered by the top school in their home state. I would wonder why the schools with the inside track on these recruits aren’t deeming these in-state kids worthy of offers, yet Rich Rodriguez is. I’d like to give him the benefit of the doubt, but he hasn’t really shown himself to be a miner of diamonds in the rough of late.
The Special Teams
What a week for the special teams. Against Purdue, the Michigan special units did the following: made a 51-yard field goal; missed an extra point; missed a 48-yard field goal; had a 55-yard kickoff return; had a 54-yard kickoff return; muffed a punt; had a 33-yard punt return; had a 63-yard punt; and lost an onside kick.
That’s a full season for most teams. Though the muffed punt by Junior Hemingway was bailed out by a terrible kick-catch interference call. There was no interference, Hemingway just tripped on his way to fielding a punt, falling on his face in the process. If it was anybody but Big Ten refs, I probably would have called it a pity call.
What Does It All Mean
It means that even in the up-and-down nature of the special teams, you can see that there’s just no consistency anywhere. The only thing you can truly count on is that something bad is eventually going to happen. And usually it’s more mental than physical.
And if talent is the biggest issue on this team, how much talent do you need in order to know where you’re supposed to be--and when?
Talent allows you to overcome your mistakes, but right now Michigan’s mistakes are overcoming their talent--and that goes back to coaching.
Why aren’t players getting better? Why aren’t they put in positions to succeed? Jordan Kovacs is so lost out on an island that he’s like Gilligan with vertigo. And about a month ago--back when he was playing up on the line of scrimmage--he was one of the Wolverines’ four best defensive players. And now he’s a liability. And in his place Mike Williams is basically ruining everything. It’s like leaving an alcoholic in charge of your bar while you go on vacation. When you come back the kegs are dry, the coolers are empty and Illinois just put 38 points on you.
Frankly, it’s time for an intervention.
Again.
The Road To The Big One
Sept. 5 Michigan 31 - Western Michigan 7 (1-0)
Sept. 12 Michigan 38 - Notre Dame 34 (2-0)
Sept. 19 Michigan 45 - Eastern Michigan 17 (3-0)
Sept. 26 Michigan 36 – Indiana 33 (4-0)
Oct. 3 Michigan State 26 - Michigan 20 (4-1)
Oct. 10 Iowa 30 - Michigan 28 (4-2)
Oct. 17 Michigan 63 - Delaware State 6 (5-2)
Oct. 24 Penn State 35 - Michigan 10 (5-3)
Oct. 31 Illinois 38 - Michigan 13 (5-4)
Nov. 7 Purdue 38 - Michigan 36 (5-5)
Nov. 14 at Wisconsin
Nov. 21 Ohio State
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