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Football Ohio State vs. Michigan State Preview By Tony Gerdeman |
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Ohio State (6-1) and Michigan State (6-1) have met 38 times previously, with the Buckeyes holding the overall advantage 26-12. Ohio State also holds a 12-5 advantage in East Lansing.
The Buckeyes have won six-straight games in this match-up going back to the Spartans’ last win in 1999.
Ohio State comes into the game ranked 12th in the nation in the AP poll, Michigan State is the 20th-ranked team in the same poll. The Spartans have lost eight-straight games against teams ranked in the AP poll. Overall, they are 18-24 in their last 42 games against teams ranked by the AP.
Since 1951, the Spartans are 8-21 when facing a ranked Ohio State team.
Ohio State has a record of 37-40-7 when facing ranked teams on the road. Jim Tressel is 10-5 in those same circumstances. Tressel is also 5-0 against the Spartans in his tenure at Ohio State.
This is Michigan State’s best start since their 7-1 opening in 2003. They finished that season losing four of their final five games.
When Michigan State Has The Ball
The Spartan offense begins and ends with running back Javon Ringer. Ringer is leading the nation in total rushing yards with 1,112 and is second in yards per game with 158.9. He also leads the nation in carries, with 247, which is 68 more than the next closest player.
Ringer is only averaging 4.5 yards per carry, which is very low for an elite running back. It’s also low for Ringer, considering he was a 6.1 yard per carry runner for his career prior to this season. Ringer’s 247 carries are already two more than he had all of last season.
His load has increased, and his average has decreased, thanks to the departure of former short-yardage back Jehuu Caulcrick. Now Ringer shares very few carries. He has carried the ball at least 25 times in every game, and has carried it over 30 times in five of the team’s seven games.
He isn’t hitting the big play like he has in the past, but he is as relentless and persistent as ever. The Spartans will pound and pound with Ringer, and just because the big plays haven’t been there much this season doesn’t mean they won’t pop up at the most inopportune time for the Buckeyes.
Despite Ringer’s impressive numbers, the Spartans are only seventh in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game. Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio is a Jim Tressel pupil, so you can’t let yourself get too hung up on a team’s offensive averages because the only number they truly care about is the final score.
To counteract the Spartan running game, the Buckeyes will look to a defensive front that has lost defensive end Lawrence Wilson for the season. The Buckeyes will rotate players in, but Wilson’s loss will be felt in the run defense.
The Buckeyes will be able to keep all three linebackers in the game since there will be no spread to defend. This means that Ross Homan will get to play the majority of the snaps and we can expect him to finish with double-digit tackles in the game.
All three linebackers will need to be aware of the cutback, because Ringer’s quickness is as impressive as his vision.
The running game would be helped out greatly by an effective performance from quarterback Brian Hoyer. Hoyer started slowly this season, but has gotten better as the season has progressed. In Big Ten play, he is currently third in the conference in passing efficiency (153.0) and has thrown five touchdowns to only one interception.
Hoyer is, however, prone to long bouts with inaccuracy and poor decision-making. The Buckeyes don’t need to sack him to affect him, but they do need to make him feel rushed.
Ohio State has a history of blitzing Michigan State quarterbacks, and we probably shouldn’t expect this week to be any different. The Buckeye secondary has proven themselves quite capable of playing man defense while others blitz, so the coaches should be confident that the defensive backs will respond when challenged. The Spartans have a couple of legitimate weapons at receiver, but cornerbacks Malcolm Jenkins and Chimdi Chekwa are as good in coverage as any team in the conference has to offer.
The Spartans leading receiver is Mark Dell, who has caught 20 passes for 443 yards and two touchdowns. He started very strong this season, but his production has diminish greatly as of late. He was hampered with an injury last week, and though he is slated to start this week, he may not be at 100 percent.
B.J. Cunningham and Blair White have stepped up lately and are as likely as Dell to get the ball. If the Buckeyes can contain these three receivers with three defensive backs, it would allow a safety to help out with the run defense. But if there have coverage issues with the safeties, the Buckeyes will need to keep both safeties back-- something they normally do anyway.
The Spartan special teams have had their ups and downs this season. Punter Aaron Bates has put nearly one-third of his punts inside the 20-yard line, but he has also had two punts blocked. After last week’s blocked punt by Malcolm Jenkins, the Spartans will need to be wary of what the Buckeyes have to bring.
Place-kicker Brett Swenson has made 15-16 field goals and all 23 extra points this season. He is extremely consistent and is 5-5 on kicks from 40 yards out or more.
Freshman tailback Glenn Winston has taken on more of a role on the kick return team and has responded with a 32.8 yard average on his four kickoff returns. Javon Ringer was the number one kick returner early on, but he’s been removed from the first unit of returners, but don’t be surprised if he’s back there at some point on Saturday.
Safety Otis Wiley is one of the top punt returners in the conference, averaging 12.5 yards per return with a long of 87 yards. He isn’t flashy and prefers to catch and run in order to get what is available to him.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
The Ohio State offense hasn’t passed for over 200 yards since the opening game against Youngstown State this. Last week against Purdue, they could only manage a whopping 97 yards through the air. This week, they will face the 9th-ranked passing defense in the conference. The Spartans are giving up 227 yards passing per game, but it is incredibly unlikely that the Buckeyes would approach those numbers as they’ve shown no intent to do so to this point with freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor.
Michigan State gives up yards, but they have a very aggressive defense that produces numerous turnovers. They are second in the conference with a +10 turnover margin. The Spartans have intercepted nine passes and are led by safety Otis Wiley, whose four interceptions are the most in the conference. He returned one of his interceptions for a touchdown.
The Spartans prefer to zone blitz, which can be very effective against veteran quarterbacks, let alone true freshmen quarterbacks who are starting to get questioned by teammates and the media.
Michigan State, like the Buckeyes, has only produced eleven sacks on the season, which is just two more than basement-dwelling Wisconsin’s nine. So while they do blitz linebackers a lot, they generally don’t reach the quarterback. They will, however, send defensive backs on the backside, and those do tend to leave a mark.
Defensive end Trevor Anderson leads the team with five sacks. He redshirted last season after transferring from Cincinnati. He is a very good player and is a tenacious pass-rusher. Given how thin the Ohio State offensive line has gotten, offensive tackles Alex Boone and Bryant Browning will need to stay healthy and energized, or else Anderson could give them quite a bit of trouble.
Obviously, Terrelle Pryor will need to be careful in this game, but that hasn’t really been his problem to this point. You don’t want to say he’s “too careful”, but rather too deliberate. It’s almost as if he doesn’t quite trust himself yet. Some quick passes and quick reads should help him build confidence, much like a couple of free throws can stop a shooting slump in basketball.
If the Buckeyes do choose to go with some quick passes, watch for freshmen receivers Devier Posey and Lamaar Thomas to get involved. Both have shown the ability to make defenders miss in one-on-one settings. And, of course, Pryor will keep his eye on Brian Robiskie downfield, because eventually they are going to connect again. It would also be nice to see Pryor start finding Brian Hartline in the intermediate zones again like he did on that final drive against Wisconsin. Of course, we probably shouldn’t expect the Spartans to play much prevent defense.
Last week, Pryor took too long deciding whether to run or not. This week, he needs to decide what he is going to do much sooner. It would not be a surprise to see him utilized more in the running game this week, but more along the lines of designed runs rather than slow-developing draws or scrambles. As much as the Spartans blitz, and as much as the Ohio State offensive line is prone to a slip-up here or there, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get Pryor up the field as quickly as possible.
Pryor isn’t going to be the Buckeyes’ only recourse on the ground. Chris Wells is gradually getting healthier, and despite a setback with the flu last week, still has yet to be contained by any defense he has faced this season, and he has had very good success against the Spartans in his career. In two games against Michigan State, Wells has rushed for 274 yards, including 221 in last year’s game alone. The Spartan rush defense is giving up 134.9 yards per game. If the Buckeyes don’t do significantly better than that number, they cannot win.
With the flu no longer forcing Wells to take frequent breaks like he did last week, the Buckeyes should be able to maintain drives better, which should lead to more scoring opportunities. But when Ohio State does get those opportunities, they will absolutely need to put the ball in the end zone.
The statistics say that the Buckeyes have the second-ranked redzone offense in the conference, converting 18 of their 20 trips into points. Of course, only eight of those trips resulted in touchdowns, so how effective has it really been?
To complicate matters, the Spartans have the Big Ten’s top-ranked redzone defense, only allowing opponents to score 61% of the time. In 23 trips into the redzone, Michigan State has only given up eight touchdowns. However, those 23 trips to the redzone for Spartan opponents is the second-highest mark in the conference.
The Buckeyes will get down there, and whoever wins the battles in the redzone will likely decide the outcome of this game.
If it’s not the redzone that decides the game, then it may very well be the special teams. The Spartans are allowing 23.4 yards per kickoff return and normally this wouldn’t be an issue as Ohio State’s kick return unit is decidedly pedestrian; however, if Lamaar Thomas can get involved, he has a chance to make something big happen.
Punter A.J. Trapasso will obviously be aware of what Michigan State does on punt returns, and as important as field position will be in this game, there may not be too many more important players in this game than Trapasso.
How It’ll End Up
The Ohio State running game will emphasize forward momentum and not worry too much about getting wide. The best way to combat an aggressive defense is to run right at it, not around it, and this is what they will do.
The Spartans will have trouble stopping Chris Wells, and when he’s relatively healthy--as he is now--he generally breaks at least one 40-yard run for a score.
However, as many carries as Wells receives, Javon Ringer is likely to have a few more. Of course, if the Buckeye defense can limit his effectiveness, then the Spartans would need to find another avenue.
Unfortunately, the Buckeyes have shown themselves to be vulnerable to talented running backs. And this will lead to Ringer getting his first touchdown against a Big Ten opponent that isn’t Northwestern or Indiana.
However, having three linebackers on the field will keep Ringer‘s totals down.
But this game is more about the Ohio State offense than the defense.
And the time for hesitation is through for Terrelle Pryor. There is no need to look for your third read. After two, take off. Keeping the chains moving will be his number one priority, and he will serve this priority well.
In the end, however, this will be Chris Wells’ game to win--especially in the redzone.
And he will.
Ohio State 24 - Michigan State 19
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