Football
Tony's Tip Sheet
By Tony Gerdeman

What do you want?

Do you want a BCS bid, or do you want a shot at an underachieving SEC team?

Personally, I wouldn’t mind winding up in the Capital One Bowl, but when given the opportunity, you have to side on the desire for prestige.

So we’re rooting for a BCS bid.

And it all comes down to one game this week for the Buckeyes. And if we want the Buckeyes in the BCS, then we’re going to have to root against OSU.

Oregon State University, that is.

(Did you see how cleverly I did that?)

So the game of the week is Oregon at Oregon State. If Oregon wins, then USC wins the Pac 10 and they go to the Rose Bowl, freeing up an at-large spot for the Buckeyes.

If Oregon State wins, then they win the Pac 10 and go to the Rose Bowl, which means the Trojans and the Buckeyes will be vying for the same at-large spot. Obviously, USC wins in the talent department, but they lose convincingly in the fan department, which is more important to bowls who are more than just a few hours drive from Los Angeles.

Face it, Trojan fans travel about as well siderodromophobic hobos. If it’s anything other than the Fiesta Bowl, the Buckeyes will have a very good shot of getting the BCS nod over the Trojans.

And if it’s not the Fiesta Bowl, would you really want to see USC against Cincinnati or USC against Florida State? Of course not.

However, if Oregon wins, then all of this is moot and one of the at-large spots is 98% ours.

But be careful what you wish for…

Thursday November 27

Teams: Texas A&M (4-7) at #2 Texas (10-1)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest: 3.5
Cheer For: Texas

Let me start out by saying that Bob Stoops should really stop whining about where his team is ranked. You lost to Texas. Zip it. And how disrespectful to Oklahoma State can you be? And let’s not act like the Cowboys haven’t given you trouble, because they have. Anyway, back to Texas and such. We’re rooting for Texas because we want them to stay ahead of Oklahoma because THEY BEAT OKLAHOMA! Although I will be rooting against Colt McCoy because I am playing against him in my league championship this weekend, so feel free to do the same.

Friday November 28

Teams: West Virginia (7-3) at #25 Pittsburgh (7-3)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ABC)
Interest: 3.5
Cheer For: West Virginia

We’re cheering for West Virginia hoping that Bill Stewart can avenge his program’s darkest night. However, if he can’t, maybe Michigan will hire him! The Mountaineers need a win here to have any hope of a Big East Title, though they will also be relying on Syracuse to beat Cincinnati, which is decidedly unlikely. Pitt, like USF recently, found a way to shut the West Virginia running game down last year, and they will try to do it again this week. However, the Panthers are allowing 25.1 points per game, so even if they know what to expect, that doesn’t mean they can still do what is needed. If Pat White stays healthy for the entire game, he’ll make enough plays to get the win. But much will depend on West Virginia’s defense and how well they contain running back LeSean McCoy, who has been held in check in Pitt’s last two games, rushing 17 times in each game for 39 and 82 yards respectively. If he can’t do better than that, Pitt is going to struggle to win. And if the running game isn’t working, expect to see McCoy used in the passing game. I’m torn on this one because I don’t like picking West Virginia on the road, and I don’t like picking Pitt against competence. But as I said before, I’ll be rooting for Bill Stewart to beat Pitt, which Rich Rodriguez completely failed to do last year.

Teams: Mississippi State (4-7) at Ole Miss (7-4)
Time (TV): 12:30 pm (Gameplan)
Interest: 2
Cheer For: Mississippi State

The Egg Bowl started in 1927, but would have never come about had it not been for Ole Miss’ win in 1926. Up until that point, the Rebels had only won five of the previous 23 meetings. After their 7-6 win on the road in 1926, the Ole Miss fans rushed the field and tried to tear down the goal posts. Mississippi State fans took offense to the gall of Ole Miss fans and defended their goal posts as best they could-with wooden chairs. Many people were injured in the fracas. Rather than have to deal with this again the next year, the two student bodies agreed to play for a trophy. The trophy was essentially a mounted brass football, but because footballs were a bit different back in “the day”, it looked like a golden egg. And the first “Battle for the Golden Egg” took place in 1927. Or at least that’s what Wikipedia told me. Pretty crazy, huh? Oh, and I don’t expect Mississippi State to pose much of a threat. It might be a close game, but that will be Ole Miss’ doing.

Teams: Kent State (3-8) at Buffalo (7-4)
Time (TV): 2:00 pm (FSOH/Gameplan)
Interest: 1
Cheer For: Buffalo

Dear Eugene Jarvis,

Hello, it’s me again. Just wanted to let you know that you don’t have to worry about TOTALLY SUCKING in your game this week because I’m not starting you. You heard me. I cut you! I didn’t even want your stink on my playoff roster. And you know what? Things have been great for me. My running backs are scoring touchdowns like they’re playing against Michigan. Things couldn’t be any better. So I just wanted you to know. And I assume you’ll see your family this week, so you can let them know the phone calls have stopped and the mail will stop soon enough (I have some things that took a lot of planning that I’m not willing to do away with just yet because I value my time and I’m not scrapping six weeks of needlework and metal shavings just because my grudge is conceivably over.) But eventually we will be out of each other’s lives and you will be as happy as I am.

Formerly Spitefully Yours,

Tony Gerdeman

Teams: LSU (7-4) at Arkansas (4-7)
Time (TV): 2:30 pm (CBS)
Interest: 1.5
Cheer For: Arkansas

Arkansas is terrible, but they do have wins over two ranked opponents. Granted, those opponents were Auburn and Tulsa, but they were ranked nonetheless. So, if you think about it, half of Arkansas’ wins were against ranked opponents. How many other teams can say that? Probably not many. Regardless of that amazing slate of wins, Arkansas is still the worst team in the SEC-and Tennessee is in the SEC too! A loss for LSU here would be a very bad loss, and the Tigers are too inconsistent to think that a win is a foregone conclusion. The game may be close simply because most of the players on LSU’s roster are used to much better than this and they’ve already scrapped this season and are thinking about next year.

Teams: Colorado (5-6) at Nebraska (7-4)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (ABC)
Interest: 3
Cheer For: Nebraska

For how far Nebraska has fallen, Bo Pellini has the same record as his former boss, Les Miles, and Pellini is playing in a tougher conference and isn‘t reportedly totally loaded with USC-level talent like LSU is. I don’t really have anything further to say, I just thought it was an interesting point.

Teams: Bowling Green (5-6) at Toledo (3-8)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (ESPN Classic)
Interest: 1.5
Cheer For: Bowling Green

If Bowling Green was given another crack at 2008, their season could have turned out much differently. Though they are just 3-4 in conference play, their losses have all been by seven points or less. And they even went to Boise State and only lost by 13 points. This is a more talented team than their record indicates. Toledo’s defense is pretty terrible, so the Falcons should be able to move the ball well enough to put up 30 points or so. I’m not sure that Toledo can do the same. They are too inconsistent on offense right now. This has always been an entertaining series and it’s probably the only major college game this weekend where you can walk up to the concession stand and buy a bag of Ballreich’s potato chips-the best chips in the world.

Teams: Fresno State (7-4) at #9 Boise State (11-0)
Time (TV): 6:00 pm (ESPN2)
Interest: 2
Cheer For: Fresno State

Poor Boise State. With a win against Fresno State they will have gone undefeated yet will be completely left out of the BCS because Utah is ranked higher. Get ready to hear about how unfair this is. It will be used as another example of why we need to go to a playoff. The irony being, of course, that Boise State could never win a tournament, and their best shot at getting a win over a major school is in the one-game setting that they are currently voluntarily a part of.

Saturday November 29

Teams: #22 Georgia Tech (8-3) at #11 Georgia (9-2)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (CBS)
Interest: 5
Cheer For: Georgia Tech

Mark Richt has never lost to Georgia Tech. He has gone 7-0 against them in his career. The underperforming Georgia defense that he brings into this game will be facing a Georgia Tech offense unlike anything they’ve seen before. And they’ve even had an off week to prepare for Paul Johnson’s triple-option flexbone attack. Which, of course, means that Johnson is going to have some wrinkles. This is going to be a fascinating game to watch as Georgia Tech slowly begins to emerge as America’s Team. But this game isn’t the most important game of the day for the Yellow Jackets. Of more importance is the Virginia game at Virginia Tech. If the Cavaliers can beat the Hokies, Georgia Tech will win the Coastal Division of the ACC. If they can’t, then Georgia Tech’s BCS dreams will die, but maybe if they’re lucky, they can wind up in a bowl game against Notre Dame, because that would just be precious. Georgia, on the other hand, has matched up against two quality opponents this year, and were dominated in both. Georgia Tech doesn’t have the talent of Alabama or Florida, but they have the coaching and they have the precision. I’m just not a fan of the Bulldogs or Matthew Stafford. I’m going to go with the Ramblin’ Wreck and their devastating triple option.

Teams: Virginia (5-6) at Virginia Tech (7-4)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest: 1.5
Cheer For: Virginia Tech

ACC games are stupid to predict. ACC rivalry games are even stupider. But even I can get this one right. Virginia has lost three straight. They are scoring 16.3 points per game. And they’re playing in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech isn’t great, but they’re good enough to keep Virginia at a two touchdown distance for the bulk of the game. If there has ever been a sure thing in an ACC rivalry game, it’s this one. (The Hokies will never see it coming.)

Teams: South Carolina (7-4) at Clemson (6-5)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ESPN2)
Interest: 2.5
Cheer For: Clemson

South Carolina has won just two of the last eleven meetings in this series, which is amazing when you consider what a football farce Clemson is. Given the rarity of a Gamecock win, it may not seem wise to pick against the Tigers, especially when the game is in Clemson. However, South Carolina has been tested this season, and for the most part, they haven’t completely failed. Of their four conference losses, only one came by more than a touchdown. Of course, that one loss was by 50 points to Florida, but I digress. Don’t get me wrong, I have no idea how South Carolina is going to win--I never do--but I just like them better than an ACC team that quit the first time they got punched in the mouth.

Teams: Syracuse (3-8) at #16 Cincinnati (9-2)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (Gameplan)
Interest: 2.5
Cheer For: Cincinnati

A win for the Bearcats and they will be the Big East Champions and likely headed for the Orange Bowl. And who knows, it may be Brian Kelly’s last game as Cincinnati’s head coach. Similarly, the game is also Greg Robinson’s last as Syracuse’s head coach, but for decidedly different reasons. Cincinnati has won three straight in this series and there’s really no reason to think Syracuse has a chance. Of course, nobody gave Syracuse a chance last week at Notre Dame. However, anybody that thinks the Notre Dame’s football program is on par with the Cincinnati football program is being foolish. Maybe in a few years Notre Dame will be able to compete with one of Ohio’s better programs, but right now there’s just no way. Congrats to Cincinnati and Brian Kelly on your Big East Championship.

Teams: #13 Missouri (9-2) vs. Kansas (6-5) (Kansas City, MO)
Time (TV): 12:30 pm (FSN)
Interest: 2.5
Cheer For: Kansas

Last year, this game was one of the games of the year. This year, not so much. The Jayhawks have returned to reality thanks to the likes of Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech all returning to their schedule this year. They are the Iowa of the Big XII-they’re only good when they don’t play the best teams. Missouri, meanwhile, is biding their time until they get Texas or Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship Game. This is the second most-played rivalry in the nation. The two teams have met 116 times. However, there is controversy over who actually holds the 54-53-9 edge. Kansas claims a win in 1960, even though it was later ruled the Jayhawks used ineligible players and the game was to be forfeited. Missouri, of course, agreed with the ruling, and they also claim the win. But on Saturday, it won’t matter who the Jayhawks truck out onto the field--they won’t be able to contain Missouri’s offense. Lousy cheaters.

Teams: Auburn (5-6) at #1 Alabama (11-0)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (CBS)
Interest: 3
Cheer For: Auburn

The Iron Bowl. I don’t need to consult Wikipedia to find out how this game came about, because I already know. It all started in 1918 with a big, burly man of a woman named Ernetta Jameson. Ernetta was known for her ability to walk into random roadhouses and beat up the toughest man in the bar. It got to be such an embarrassment for the men that eventually they just decided that drinking wasn’t worth it anymore, and that’s how Prohibition got passed. Eventually, with no more bar patrons to pummel, and no speakeasies granting her access, she attempted to legitimize her talents by fighting horses. However, to make it fair for the horses, Ernetta was not permitted to bite. Needless to say, rarely did a horse ever mount a challenge. Fortunately for thirsty Americans, with Ernetta’s focus finally off of the drunkards in the saloons, Prohibition was repealed and the booze once again flowed like lefts and rights from Ernetta’s electric fists. Ironically, Ernetta single-handedly started and destroyed the entire horse-fighting industry because she was so dominant at a sport that nobody else could compete in. Sure, there were a few who gained local notoriety for horse-fighting, but they were fighting against horses that were long ago put out to pasture and who were well-known for their inability to take a punch. So after retiring from the horse-fighting circuit at the age of 32, Ernetta was desperate for her next challenge. And that’s when she heard about football. For a couple of years she played against teams of shrimpers and textile workers, always allowing them to remain competitive so as not to close out another industry, as her constant embarrassment of men could have quite detrimental effects on the women of the towns in which she played. For instance, in one of her first matches against a group of textile workers in Millbrook, Alabama, she won 84-0--and this was when touchdowns only counted for four points. After the factory men lost, their wives never looked at them the same way again. They began to try and relate to the men on how they were treated by Ernetta. And, astoundingly, they began to feel equal to the men. A group of wives would soon start a support group called “The National Organization of Women” where they would discuss iced tea and pie recipes and talk about how their husbands just didn’t “do it for them anymore”. The husbands then began going to the factories less and less and the bars more and more. With Ernetta once again rampaging in the south (Will Rogers once said Ernetta “put the ‘She‘ in ‘Sherman‘”), she was barred from playing football in the great state of Alabama. However, the state government had seen what a popular sport they had on their hands. Before Ernetta, there was no tackling in football in the south, there was only aggressive hugging and the hearty laughing of healthy men. She brought “the spit and the grit” to it, they used to say. Quite frankly, she changed the shape of football in the south. And to honor this new found aggressive style of football, in 1934 then Governor of Alabama, Benjamin M. Miller, decreed that the University of Alabama and Auburn University should play this same style of football every year. And he wanted them to play it in honor of Ernetta Jameson, a woman. And could there be a more fitting name for a football game played in honor of a woman than “The Iron Bowl”? Benjamin M. Miller didn’t think so.

Oh, and Bama by 17.

Teams: #4 Florida (10-1) at #20 Florida State (8-3)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (ABC/ESPN2)
Interest: 5
Cheer For: Florida State

Woe is the team that stands in the way of Urban Meyer’s glory. Florida State has lost four straight to Florida and hasn’t even been competitive in those games. And now Florida is out to make a point. Sure, the crowd will be electric, and the Noles will be supremely excited to start the game. But when the Gators score on their first three drives, Florida State will turn their attention to the Maryland and Boston College game, since that game more directly affects their BCS chances. This game against Florida is essentially a shot to swing for the fences. But the Noles will uppercut too much. They’ll start pulling their heads. They’ll drop their back shoulders, and instead of reaching the fences, they’ll just hit a couple of pop-ups.

Teams: Maryland (7-4) at #21 Boston College (8-3)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (ABC/ESPN2)
Interest: 2
Cheer For: Boston College

Let’s get to the point: If Boston College wins, they win the Atlantic Division over Florida State. If Maryland wins, then Florida State wins the division. It would be just like Maryland to win a game so that somebody completely uninvolved in it can swoop in and steal the division. And furthering Maryland’s chances is the fact that Boston College’s starting quarterback Chris Crane broke his collarbone last week and is out. In his place will be redshirt freshman Dominique Davis who came on last week to close out the win against Wake Forest, 24-21. Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that Maryland is 4-0 against ranked opponents this season. Pick this game at your own peril.

Teams: Baylor (4-7) at #7 Texas Tech (10-1)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (VS)
Interest: 2
Cheer For: Texas Tech

I wonder if Texas Tech will come out sluggish in this one simply because they know their season is over. They won’t be able to jump either Texas or Oklahoma, assuming an Oklahoma win this week. So they have no BCS to look forward to. They’ll just go to one of the usual bowl games that the Big XII also-rans always go to. Congratulations on being the story of college football for a good two months! Here’s your invitation to the Cotton Bowl.

Teams: Houston (7-4) at Rice (8-3)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (CBSCS)
Interest: 5
Cheer For: Rice!

Aside from this game featuring Rice quarterback Chase Clement, who I am starting this week, this is also a game with actual C-USA impact. Both Houston and Rice are 6-1 in their division, and they are tied with Tulsa. However, Houston has beaten Tulsa and Tulsa has beaten Rice, so if Rice wins this game, Tulsa would wrap up the division with a win at Marshall this week. Did you follow all of that? Another way to say it is if Houston wins this game, they win the division and will play East Carolina in the conference championship game. And, sadly, I don’t think Rice has the defense to stop Houston. But the good thing is that Rice will have to keep playing catch-up until the last glorious minute. And if they want to go to overtime, I won’t mind. I’ll be tuned in and smiling like a panhandler in a wishing well.

Teams: #23 Oregon (8-3) at #17 Oregon State (8-3)
Time (TV): 7:00 pm (VS)
Interest: 5
Cheer For: Oregon

If there’s a game this week that every Buckeye fan needs to watch, it’s this one. We’ve already talked about what’s at stake, so there should be no confusion here. And even though we’re rooting against Oregon State, I would still take a little bit of joy in the Beavers winning the Pac 10. But they will have to do it without star tailback Jacquizz Rodgers, who was injured in last week’s win over Arizona. Without Rodgers, the Beavers will likely have to rely on their receivers to move the ball, which is an iffy proposition with quarterback Lyle Moevao returning from injury. Oregon State will still run the ball, mostly with Jacquizz’s older brother James, and bruising freshman Ryan McCants. The real running threats to watch, however, are on the other side of the field. Oregon’s two-headed monster of Jeremiah Johnson and LaGarrette Blount are the main cogs in an offense that averages 268 yards rushing per game. Together, they have the speed and power to match up against nearly any defense, and certainly the Oregon State defense. However, the Beavers just have…something…this year. And as much as I’ll be rooting against them, I think it’s a lost cause. This is Oregon State’s year and there is nothing we can do about it. Sorry.

Teams: #3 Oklahoma (10-1) at #12 Oklahoma State (9-2)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ABC)
Interest: 5
Cheer For: Oklahoma State

Like Florida, Oklahoma is in the business of trying to make people forget a loss by wowing them with the scoreboard. And, sadly, the idiot voters out there are falling for it. Bob Stoops says that if you can’t put Oklahoma ahead of Texas, then you shouldn’t be able to put Texas ahead of Texas Tech. However, I would love a world where Stoops’ hubristic dismantling of Texas Tech actually got people to realize that Texas Tech wasn’t as good as they initially thought, and they dropped Tech out of sight and out of mind, leaving the only argument between Texas and Oklahoma--which is exactly what has happened, except the idiot voters are too drenched in their own drool to recognize it. Instead the mentally-frayed coaches and Harris voters have been hypnotized by the Sooners‘ dreaminess, never stopping to think that they’re ranking the Sooners ahead of the only team to beat them. Stoops has no argument. The fact is the Red Raiders are completely out of the picture after getting drilled by Oklahoma. The only two teams remaining in the picture are Texas and Oklahoma. And the stupid people who vote have decided on Oklahoma for some reason. This is why we are rooting for Oklahoma State. For justice. And the Pokes can definitely win this game, but it would take a nearly perfect effort. Oklahoma State never has any fear of Oklahoma, and they bring a power running game that can punch anybody in the mouth. However, Oklahoma is amazing right now on offense, so even if the Pokes can put some points on the board, they won’t be able to put up the 50 needed to win. And it’s too bad. At least we won’t have to see Stoops crying like a baby for votes, since he already has them. Idiots. Stupid, stupid idiots. Baaing the baa of sheep.

Teams: #59 Notre Dame (6-5) at #5 USC (9-1)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ESPN)
Interest: 5
Cheer For: USC

I’m suggesting we cheer for USC because it’s just not possible to cheer for Notre Dame. Plus, there’s just no point in it. Also, I’m starting USC’s defense this week, and we’re all fans of Team Awesome here. Pete Carroll has quite the dilemma on his hands. He basically controls Charlie Weis’ fate. After all, it was USC’s close win in 2005 that gave Charlie Weis his greatest win ever and landed him a ridiculous contract extension. And has that extension been good for USC? Without question. Which brings us back to Carroll’s dilemma. He is on the outside of the BCS looking in right now and a huge win could get the Trojans back on the radar. However, Charlie Weis being at Notre Dame helps USC every year, so Carroll has to weigh his desires to make his BCS mark against the value of keeping Weis employed. Because don’t think for a second that Carroll couldn’t make this Charlie Weis’ last game at Notre Dame if he wanted to. But I’m going to have to side with Carroll’s ego in this one, which is usually a safe bet. I will be surprised if Notre Dame scores in this one. So please join me in saying goodbye to Charlie Weis. We here at the Tip Sheet have truly appreciated your immeasurable contributions to college football and we know that wherever your decided schematic advantage takes you, it will always be somebody else’s fault when you fail. Have a good life.

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