Football
Pac 10 Preview
By Jeff Amey

As we enter the home stretch of our tour of BCS conferences, we take a look out west at the Pac-10 and the almost unanimously #1 rated team this pre-season. The USC Trojans have dominated this conference for the past five seasons, and are clearly the team to beat again this year. The rest of the confernce looks as if they might finally start to be catching up to the Trojans, but it will take an upset of epic proportions to derail the Trojans from their sixth straight conference title.

Taking a look at coaching changes in the conference, there were two Head coaching changes in the conference this off-season. Arizona State seemed to stagnate the past few seasons with Dirk Koetter at the helm, and with last seasons botched quarterback situation, it was time for some fresh blood. Dennis Erickson's blood might not be very fresh, but he is a tried and true head man and should improve on the Sun Devil's near .500 finishes over the past few seasons. There is nowhere to go but up for Stanford in the conference after Walt Harris' disastrous stint. Jim Harbaugh is untested at the major college level, but says all the right things when it comes to wanting to change the direction of the Cardinal program.

Media Consensus Order of Finish

1) USC

2) UCLA

3) California

4) Oregon State

5) Oregon

6) Arizona State

7) Arizona

8) Washington State

9) Washington

10) Stanford

My Predicted Order of Finish with Preview

1) USC Trojans

Last Season: 11-2 (7-2), Pac-10 Champion

Returning Starters: 17 (6 off, 10 def, P)

Key Games: at Nebraska, at California, vs. UCLA

There aren't very many reasons to not have USC as the top team on paper heading into the 2007 season. They return almost their entire defense and have a stable of offensive talent ready to replace last season's departing starters. QB John David Booty must only take care of the ball in the passing game and let the talent around him do the work, and this team will be unstoppable in the conference this season. Only an uncertain receiver corps seems to be their only possible personnel weakness. The Trojan's schedule could also end up tripping up USC's title hopes, with away games at Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon, California, and Arizona State, but they should be favored in all of those games. When the rest of the Pac-10 decides that defense is just as important as offense, things might be a little different in the Pac-10. Until that day comes, get used to hearing the Trojan march...on the field and on the official Trojan cheerleading network, ESPN.

2) California Golden Bears

Last Season: 10-3 (7-2), Tied 1st Pac-10

Returning Starters: 14 (7 off, 5 def, K, P)

Key Games: vs. Tennessee, at Oregon, at UCLA, vs. USC

No team has come closer to overtaking USC in the Pac-10 over the past five years than California, but they will probably have to wait another year for the opportunity to make that a reality. Despite losing HB Marshawn Lynch to the NFL, the Bear offense shouldn't really miss a beat. QB Nate Longshore returns, as does most of their receiving corps, including DeSean Jackson, one of the top playmakers in the country. The problem for Cal since the resurgence of USC, and for most of the Pac-10 in general, has been their defense. Unless there is improvement on this side of the ball, the best the Bears can realistically hope for is another ten win season. Will it be enough to propel them to a BCS bowl? Historically, this has not proven to be enough for a Pac-10 team to make it, so look for a return trip to the Holiday Bowl.

3) UCLA Bruins

Last Season: 7-6 (5-4), 4th Pac-10

Returning Starters: 21 (10 off, 10 def, P)

Key Games: at Oregon State, vs. Notre Dame, vs. California, at USC

Seldom do you ever see one win, UCLA's 13-9 upset of USC last season, raise expectations so high from one season to the next. That is exactly the case for the Bruins heading into the 2007 season. Couple the promise of that game with the fact that almost the entire team returns from last season, and the expectations might not be unfounded. Despite last season's upset, coach Karl Dorrell has to still be feeling the heat to level the playing field with the Trojans in the conference race. With a senior laden team, this has got to be the year that he does it. QB Ben Olson is coming off of a knee injury last season, but should be the starter, and has plenty of weapons at his disposal on offense, but the difference between UCLA and most of the rest of the conference is they actually play a little defense in Pasedena. Ten wins for the Bruins is realistic, and a conference title is not out of the question, but nine wins and a third place finish sounds about right for UCLA this season.

4) Oregon State Beavers

Last Season: 10-4 (6-3), 3rd Pac-10

Returning Starters: 17 (7 off, 8 def, K, P)

Key Games: vs. UCLA, at California, at USC, at Oregon

Oregon State had one of the quietest ten win seasons ever, despite their 33-31 upset of USC last season. Things are actually set up for a duplication of that feat this year for the Beavers. If they are able to find a quarterback, there will be a lot of offensive weapons at his disposal, including Yvenson Bernard, one of the top backs in the nation you probably haven't heard of. The Beavers didn't have a dominating defense last season, but were opportunistic and made big plays. Most of that defense returns and should keep the Beavers in most of their games this year even if they aren't favored. Oregon State should be considered the dark horse in the Pac-10 this year. They have the talent to beat anyone in any given week, but have to put it all together every week to win the conference title. With away games with Cal, USC, and Oregon, eight or nine wins seem appropriate for the Beavers this season.

5) Arizona Wildcats

Last Season: 6-6 (4-5), Tied 5th Pac-10

Returning Starters: 19 (9 off, 10 def)

Key Games: at BYU, at California, at Oregon State, at USC, vs. UCLA

This should be an interesting year in Tucson for Wildcat fans. Arizona returns nearly their entire starting lineup from last season on both sides of the ball. That's good news for the defense,which was one of the conference's best last season and should be even better this year. For the offense, it is a mixed blessing. Last season, the Wildcats struggled to move the ball and put points on the board. Arizona coach Mike Stoops made some major changes to the offense this off-season, installing a Texas Tech-style spread. It is yet to be seen if Arizona has the personnel to successfully pull off this new attack, but it should be interesting to watch. Regardless, the defense should be good enough to keep the Wildcats in their games, and only minor improvements in the offense from last season should equal more wins, though only one or two more than last season's six is realistic.

6) Oregon Ducks

Last Season: 7-6 (4-5), Tied 5th Pac-10

Returning Starters: 14 (7 off, 7 def)

Key Games: at Michigan, vs. California, vs. USC, at UCLA

Oregon is another of the many teams in the Pac-10 with an exciting offense and a defense that leaves a lot to be desired. Last season, the Ducks had one of the best offenses in the nation, but turned the ball over far too often, getting themselves in trouble with a defense that wasn't able to get other offenses off the field. The skill players from that offense return, including HB Jonathan Stewart, who is also one of the best in the nation you probably haven't heard much about. In stark reversal of the norm in the Pac-10, the Ducks actually play decent pass defense, leading the conference last season, but have had trouble stopping the run. Expect the same pattern from the defense this season. Oregon has the talent to finish higher in the conference than this, but must take better care of the ball and play better defense to improve on their seven wins from last season.

7) Arizona State Sun Devils

Last Season: 7-6 (4-5), Tied 5th Pac-10

Returning Starters: 17 (10 off, 6 def, P)

Key Games: vs. California, at UCLA, vs. USC

By now the pattern should be familiar. Arizona State should be prolific on the offensive side of the ball, with 10 of last season's starters returning, including QB Rudy Carpenter. On defense, the Sun Devils will be hard pressed to keep other teams off of the scoreboard. New Coach Dennis Erickson brings instant credibility to the program, but has not really been much of a factor in college football since leaving Miami after the 1994 season. Will Erickson capture some of his past success with the Sun Devils, or will the constantly under-achieving program continue hovering around the .500 mark? The schedule lines up for a possible 7-0 start, but the Sun Devils should be underdogs for their final five games, leading me to believe a 6-6 season is in the works.

8) Washington Huskies

Last Season: 5-7 (3-6), 9th Pac-10

Returning Starters: 12 (6 off, 6 def)

Key Games: vs. Boise State, vs. Ohio State, at UCLA, vs. USC, vs. California, at Hawaii

The Huskies have fallen a long way from their run from 1989 to 2002, where the Huskies went to 12 bowl games in 14 seasons and won a piece of the 1991 National Championship. Washington has not gone to a bowl since the 2002 season, and with a front-loaded schedule, will probably have to wait another year to break into the post-season. Washington is yet another Pac-10 team that has followed the "decent offense/poor defense" mold in the past few seasons, and all indications are that they won't break that mold this year. There are a few weapons to build around on offense, but the defense lost most of their best players from last year from a unit that wasn't very good. An 0-6 start is a clear possibility, but if the Huskies pull off an upset or two early, another four to five win season is where they will end up.

9) Washington State Cougars

Last Season: 6-6 (4-5), Tied 5th Pac-10

Returning Starters: 14 (7 off, 5 def, K, P)

Key Games: at Wisconsin, at USC, vs. UCLA, at California

Washington State was on the brink of securing themselves a bowl appearance with a 6-3 start and three winnable games left on the schedule. The Cougars lost all three of those games and extended their bowl-less drought to three seasons. It is unlikely that they break that string this season. It should be no surprise that the Cougars also have a decent offense/poor defense combination, but where this combination hurts this team the most is in the defensive secondary, where the Cougars will be breaking in a lot of new faces. For a conference that likes to toss the ball around quite a bit, this will probably be a weakness too difficult to overcome. Washington State has the talent on offense to pull off an upset somewhere this season, but fans should feel lucky if they end the season with more than four or five wins.

10) Stanford Cardinal

Last Season: 1-11 (1-8), 10th Pac-10

Returning Starters: 17 (7 off, 8 def, K, P)

Key Games: any they have a chance at winning

New Coach Jim Harbaugh inherited one of the toughest situations in the nation when he took over a flailing Stanford program that combined one of the nation's worst offenses with one of the nation's worst defenses. The Cardinal's score reached double digits in only half of their games last season, while holding opponents under 30 points only three times. Talent-wise, Stanford is well behind the rest of the conference, and will need several seasons of better recruiting to narrow that gap enough to keep Stanford competitive in an improved Pac-10. Stanford will play eight home games this season, but will be lucky to double last year's win total of one.

Pac-10 Blurbs

* Number of FCS (former 1AA) opponents for the conference--2

* Number of out of conference opponents from BCS conferences--11

* Going Bowling--USC, California, UCLA, Oregon State

* On the Fringe--Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State

* BCS Representative(s)--USC

Return to the-Ozone Columns and Features

Return to the-OZone Front Page