Ohio State vs. Penn State Preview
by Tony GerdemanOn Saturday, Ohio State and Penn State will meet for just the 23rd time in the two schools’ histories. They have split the first 22 games with eleven wins each.
In this series the higher-ranked team has won 15 of the last 16, with the lone outlier being the 2005 game when the 16th-ranked Nittany Lions beat the 6th-ranked Buckeyes 17-10. That was also the last regular season and conference loss for the Buckeyes. A win for Ohio State on Saturday would give them 19-consecutive Big Ten victories, which would tie the record that the Michigan Wolverines set from 1990-92.
Though the higher-ranked team seems to have an advantage, the home team has won 12 of the 14 games played between the schools since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993.
Penn State has only hosted one other #1 team, losing to Notre Dame 34-23 in 1989. All time, they are 4-9 against the #1-ranked team. Joe Paterno is 4-7. Penn State has never beaten Ohio State when the Buckeyes are ranked #1, losing both prior meetings.
The Nittany Lions have won 19 of 20 at home, with last season’s loss against Michigan as their lone recent loss.
Joe Paterno is 7-11 in his career against Ohio State. He is 40-18 against the Big Ten since 1993.
Jim Tressel is 4-2 against Penn State. He is 6-4 on the road against ranked opponents.
All time, Penn State is 6-5 at home at night. Ohio State is 24-10 on the road in night games.
Ohio State’s record when ranked #1 in its history is 65-9-1.
When Penn State Has The Ball
In conference games only, Penn State running backs Rodney Kinlaw (6th at 96.8 ypg) and Evan Royster (9th at 55.8 ypg) are both in the top ten rushing leaders in the Big Ten.
Kinlaw isn’t big (5’9” 199), so he relies on his quickness and speed. He won’t break many tackles at the line of scrimmage, but if he gets through the mess, he can make defenders miss.
Royster (6’1” 211) is a redshirt freshman who was third on the depth chart at the beginning of the season, but since Austin Scott’s legal issues he has averaged 74 yards rushing per game the last three weeks. Royster is a smooth runner that can get to the corner.
Fullback Matt Hahn was injured and has been lost for the season. Hahn and Austin Scott were both used in short-yardage situations. With both of them out, the power running falls to Royster and Kinlaw, something that doesn’t suit either of them.
Linebackers James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman should be able to focus on the running game and they’ll need to keep Royster and Kinlaw from getting to the next level.
In Big Ten play, the Buckeyes are only giving up 27 yards rushing per game, so obviously the defensive line has been getting penetration and allowing the linebackers to make plays.
Linebacker Larry Grant and defensive end Cameron Heyward will need to continue to get pressure from the outside, forcing the running game back into Freeman and Laurinaitis. Between the two of them, Grant and Heyward have combined for 13 tackles for loss. They won’t have to worry about quarterback containment, so they can attack freely.
Penn State quarterback Anthony Morelli may not be overly mobile, but the Nittany Lions will still run some play-action bootlegs. Morelli likes to dump these passes off to receivers running short drag routes over the middle.
In Big Ten play, Morelli has thrown six interceptions and only five touchdowns. He is eighth in the conference in passing efficiency. He is completing 57.5% of his passes and has sporadic accuracy.
Penn State likes to go deep, but they do it with spotty success. Regardless of who is playing deep for the Buckeyes, be it free safety Anderson Russell or strong safety Kurt Coleman, they must not allow the play-action to suck them in. They need to let the front seven do their job and not get caught looking at the quarterback when the receivers are running by them.
Morelli will also throw plenty of pump fakes. For aggressive defenders, this will get them beat. The Ohio State defense cannot give up big gains to this offense. They need to make sound plays, not big plays. The Buckeyes need to force Penn State to put long drives together. Don’t allow half of an 80-yard drive on one play.
And even if they do put a long drive together, it doesn’t guarantee a touchdown. In Big Ten play, Penn State has scored only ten touchdowns in 24 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Ohio State defense has only allowed an opponent inside their red-zone four times, giving up only two touchdowns.
Morelli likes to go deep but his receivers will primarily be used in the short-passing game. They will also throw bubble screens and quick hitches to the outside in soft coverage.
While Penn State’s receiving corps is highly-touted, they have not been making many big plays. As a group, Penn State’s four leading wide receivers are averaging only twelve yards per reception.
Receiver Derrick Williams is only averaging 9.4 yards per catch. The player the Buckeyes saw as a freshman in 2005 is barely recognizable in 2007. He only has eight carries on the season.
Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood are Penn State’s two most-productive weapons. Morelli relies on both to move the chains. Ohio State has the secondary to match up very well with all of the Nittany Lion receivers. Nickel back Chimdi Chekwa leads the team with seven passes defended and is tied for fourth in solo tackles with 20.
One player to keep an eye on is tight end Andrew Quarless. Though he only has nine receptions on the season, he is big (6’5” 250) and athletic. He is a mismatch for most linebackers.
If Ohio State cannot get pressure on Morelli he will be able to set up in the pocket and deliver very catchable balls. If the Buckeyes can get pressure on him, his accuracy drops considerably. This is even evident on screen passes when he knows he is going to face pressure. He is frequently high on passes when he is pressured. The Buckeyes need to make sure they come up with at least one of these errant passes.
Penn State is giving up a little over two sacks per game in Big Ten play. Don’t expect the Buckeyes to just rely on the front four to get a pass rush. They will bring everybody in the back seven at one time or another. Their goal will be to make Anthony Morelli a decision-maker, and they will be playing toward his tendencies.
The Nittany Lions’ goal in this game will be to end every series with a kick, be it a placement or a punt. And this is an area where they excel. Punter Jeremy Boone leads the conference in punting, averaging 44.2 yards per kick.
Place-kicker Kevin Kelly has made 14-19 field goals and 29-30 extra points. He has a very strong leg. The Nittany Lions lead the conference in touchbacks.
Derrick Williams is third in the conference in punt returns, averaging 13.7 yards per return, scoring once on a 78-yard touchdown. A.J. Wallace is fifth in the conference in kickoff returns, averaging 27.0 yards per return, including a 68-yarder earlier in the season.
The Buckeyes lead the conference in punt coverage, having given up only 23 yards on seven returns. They are allowing 22 yards per kick return and have had issues in this area all season long. Despite these issues, they are fourth in the conference in kickoff coverage.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
In conference play, Ohio State quarterback Todd Boeckman is second in the Big Ten in passing efficiency and has thrown ten touchdowns and five interceptions in four games.
Penn State will come into this game looking to make Todd Boeckman win this game. They believe that they will get to him physically and mentally. As a unit, they feel that they can rattle Boeckman and force him into mistakes. The Ohio State offensive line will need to make sure that this doesn’t happen.
The Nittany Lions are second in the conference in sacks with 18 in five Big Ten games. Defensive end Maurice Evans is second in the nation with 10.5 sacks on the season and has at least two sacks in three straight games. Regardless of which lineman or tight end he lines up against, it probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to send help.
Penn State lost one of their better pass-rushers when defensive end/linebacker Jerome Hayes tore his ACL earlier in the season. He was a playmaker in the backfield and the Nittany Lions don’t really have anybody that has been able to take his place.
Also lost to injury recently was defensive tackle Jared Odrick. Odrick was becoming the team’s best interior lineman. Fortunately for Penn State, they have a nice rotation of defensive tackles and part-time starter Ollie Ogbu has been inserted into a familiar situation. Ogbu has the ability to get into the backfield, but isn’t the complete player that Odrick was.
With the trouble that has found the Penn State defensive line, the running game could be at an advantage for the Buckeyes. On the season, the Nittany Lions are only giving up 117 yards rushing per game in conference play, though Michigan (166) and Illinois (216) did have success. At home, the Nittany Lions are only allowing 67.5 yards rushing per game in conference.
Last week, running back Chris Wells had the team placed on his back at the end of the game, and he delivered. This week, he will get as may carries as he can handle. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, that number fluctuates from week to week. If Chris Wells misses too much time with his ankle situation, the Nittany Lions will gain momentum. It is imperative that Wells stays in the game as much as he can stand.
Penn State will come into this game looking to stop the run first. They did much the same thing against Wisconsin and held the Badgers to 87 yards rushing on 34 attempts. Wisconsin was unable to make Penn State respect the pass.
Against the Badgers, Penn State employed five and six-man fronts in order to stop the run. They frequently went with four linemen and four linebackers on the field at the same time. If this happens on Saturday, Todd Boeckman needs to make Penn State pay for their lack of respect.
Cornerbacks Justin King and Lydell Sargent have had trouble with the deep ball this year, and if the Nittany Lions are going to have eight defenders in the box, Boeckman will have to take some shots downfield. If the Buckeyes are successful, Penn State will have to turn a run-defender into a pass-defender, thereby eliminating a would-be tackler of Chris Wells.
If Penn State chooses to crowd the line of scrimmage, quick passes can also be effective, as one missed tackle out wide can turn into six points rather quickly. Also, King is very aggressive in coverage, so a pump-and-go probably wouldn’t be a bad idea.
When the Nittany Lions play a base defense, they are extremely solid. Linebackers Sean Lee and Dan Connor are involved in every single running play. A four or five-yard run against this defense should be considered a winning play.
Ohio State will be able to match the Nittany Lions in the punting game, including returns. Receiver Brian Hartline is leading the conference in punt returns with a 15.3 yard average.
The kickoff returns, however, have not been so good. The Buckeyes are 119th in the nation, averaging 16.75 yards on their eight kickoff returns.
Punter A.J. Trapasso has done a very good job on kickoffs, and touchbacks will continue to be desired, rather than having A.J. Wallace fielding kicks.
Place-kicker Ryan Pretorious is 13-16 on field goals this season and 31-32 on extra points. Penetration and snaps have been a problem for the special teams all season long and Saturday would be an inopportune time for it to happen again.
How It’ll End Up
If there is a team without any turnovers after the game, chances are that that will be your winner.
The forecast is currently calling for rain. This will give Penn State an advantage because it will keep head coach Jim Tressel from opening up the offense, thereby keeping the Nittany Lions—and their fans—into the game. And there is always a tremendous break at some point in this game for the home team. The Buckeyes can’t allow that one break to beat them.
The Buckeyes would like to come out throwing to open the running game, and if Penn State doesn’t react soon enough, Ohio State will jump out to an early lead.
On the season, the Buckeyes have outscored their opponents 80-2 in the first quarter. Penn State, on the other hand, has been outscored 41-45 in the first quarter.
The Buckeyes need to jump on the Nittany Lions early.
And they will.
Ohio State will get an early lead and then rely on their defense. Penn State will not be able to run the ball and too much reliance on Anthony Morelli is a bad thing. He is not a load-bearing quarterback.
Chris Wells will rush for over 100 yards against Penn State and he will once again close out a conference win for the Buckeyes.
Ohio State 20 – Penn State 9
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