Football
Big Ten Countdown - No. 5 Purdue
By Tony Gerdeman

Predicted Finish 8-4 (4-4)

Two-Cent Overview

Nearly everybody is back from a team that went 8-6 (5-3) last season. And while they did win five conference games, they didn't beat anybody of consequence. This offense is going to have to prove that it can score on the upper division of the Big Ten, because last year, they couldn't. Against Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State, the Boilermakers scored a combined 20 points--and 17 of those came against Iowa. The defense will need to limit the shootouts and the place-kicking will have to get much better if Purdue wants to squeak out some close wins.

Schedule
Sept. 1 at Toledo (W)
Sept. 8 Eastern Illinois (W)
Sept. 15 Central Michigan (W)
Sept. 22 at Minnesota (L)
Sept. 29 Notre Dame (W)
Oct. 6 Ohio State (L)
Oct. 13 at Michigan (L)
Oct. 20 Iowa (W)
Oct. 27 Northwestern (W)
Nov. 3 at Penn State (L)
Nov. 10 Michigan State (W)
Nov. 17 at Indiana (W)

Goal

New Years Day Bowl. A January bowl game would mean at least a third or fourth-place finish for Purdue, and that's entirely possible. The Boilermakers have a decent shot for as many as ten wins this season, provided they can protect their home field.

Five Questions Looking For Answers

1. Can quarterback Curtis Painter cut down on his mistakes and lower his interception total (19) from last season?
2. Can this offense score against a quality defense?
3. Can anybody cover receiver Dorien Bryant?
4. Who steps in for departed defensive end Anthony Spencer and his 26.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks?
5. Will an experienced secondary emerge as a real strength of this team?

Something To Look For

Six starters in the secondary. That doesn't mean they'll be starting a dime defense, it just means that all four starters return, along with a couple of safeties who probably could have started last year, had they not had health and academic issues. Free safety Brandon King was academically ineligible last season, but returns this season and it looks like he may take the starting job from a currently injured Brandon Erwin. King probably would have won the job anyway, and it's not because Erwin has regressed, rather it's because King is playing so well right now that the staff feels they need to get him on the field. Strong safety Justin Scott returns again this season after leading the team in interceptions (3) and finishing seventh in tackles (60). He should still be the starter, but Torii Williams will also contribute. Williams has been plagued by injuries and misdeeds for most of his career and after sitting out last season, he looks to finally be focused on football.

Returning Starters

Nine on offense, nine on defense and both kicking specialists.

Best Player

Wide receiver Dorien Bryant. You don't have to prod head coach Joe Tiller to get him to gush about Bryant. At the Big Ten media day, Tiller said, "I truly think Bryant is the most talented of all of the receivers we have had in my ten years at Purdue."

Granted, there haven't been a lot of big names running routes for the Boilers, but there have been plenty of productive receivers. Bryant is not only a productive possession receiver, he also has the ability to make plays after the catch. Due to the Boilers playing fewer games this season, Bryant's overall numbers may not match the 87 catches and 1,068 yards he produced last year, but don't be surprised if his touchdown numbers are better than the six he had in 2006.

Second Best Player

Defensive end Cliff Avril. Avril appears to be the next big-number producer at defensive end for the Boilermakers. Last season, Avril finished third on the team with 84 tackles and second with 15 tackles for loss and six sacks. This season, with fellow defensive end Anthony Spencer gone for the NFL, Avril's role and importance will definitely increase. As a former linebacker, he is able to use his speed to get around the edge, and he's able to chase ball carriers down from behind. Purdue needs him to be a playmaker along the lines of former ends Shaun Phillips and the aforementioned Spencer. He should be up for the challenge.

Best Chance For a Big Loss

at Michigan. Purdue travels to Michigan a week after hosting Ohio State at home. They will be incredibly geared up for the Buckeyes, and if things don't go Purdue's way, they may be heading to Michigan on a down tick. That doesn't bode well for the West Lafayettians.

Most Important Game

Ohio State. Since Tiller has been at Purdue, the Boilermakers are 2-1 at home against the Buckeyes. In fact, out of the six times Tiller has coached against the Buckeyes, the game has been decided by more than seven points only once. Ohio State should come into Ross-Ade Stadium ranked in the Top Ten and looking to remain undefeated. The Boilers will be coming off of a win against Notre Dame and looking for another notch in their belt.

Best Road Game To Pack Up The Family Truckster And Travel To

at Michigan. Who doesn't love traveling to the world's largest (and quietest) man-made crater?

Best Reason They Won't Be Undefeated

There will be close games and Joe Tiller's effectiveness in close games is sometimes similar to water's effectiveness in fending off starvation.

Best Reason They Will Be Undefeated

The offense should allow them to score on just about everybody.

Game They Shouldn't Lose, But Could

Notre Dame. Notre Dame brings their name into West Lafayette, so right away, the Boilers should be geared up. They also bring in a defense that defends the pass about as thoroughly as PETA defends Michael Vick. Still, it's Notre Dame versus Purdue, and when the Shillelagh is on the line, no team is safe from a good noggin floggin'.

Player People Are Expecting Too Much From

Middle linebacker Dan Bick. Joe Tiller would really like somebody to step up and be a playmaker at middle linebacker. Unfortunately, Bick is about as good as it gets for the Boilers. He played weakside linebacker and led the team in tackles last season with 95, however, that only comes out to about seven tackles per game. He's not much of an attacker, and that probably won't change with his move to the middle. He is a good player, but is a bit undersized (6'1" 225) to run the middle in the Big Ten (though those numbers are probably out of date.)

Player People Will Be Pleasantly Surprised By

Cornerback Royce Adams. Adams started twelve of the fourteen games last season as a true freshman. Tiller was raving about Adams during last season's Big Ten media day, and Adams' play showed that the early praise was justified. Granted, Adams still had some issues last year, as all freshmen do. However, there should be considerable improvement in all areas for Adams this season. He only had one PBU and one interception last season. Both of those numbers should increase this season. He is also slated to be the punt returner this season, as he was last season. His 6.4 yard average per return was definitely sub-par, but don't be surprised if he doubles that average this season.

Best Newcomer

Guard/Tackle Elliot Hood. Hood is a versatile graduate student who transferred in from Vanderbilt and looks like he could be a viable candidate to fill one of the spots on the left side of the line. He started six games at right tackle last season, but has played both guard and tackle his entire career. Even if he can't win one of the two open jobs on the offensive line, he provides valuable depth and experience.

Game On The Schedule That Would Make Bret Bielema Jealous

Eastern Illinois. Bielema would gobble Eastern Illinois up like free pizza at an office party. And you know he'd end up taking some home "for the family".

Something They Do Well

Involve everybody on offense. Nobody gets left behind in a Joe Tiller offense. There is no window dressing. Ignoring the usual number of wide receivers who are active in this offense, you also have Dustin Keller, a tight end who caught 56 passes for 771 yards and four touchdowns last year. And don't think the running backs only run the football. Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor combined for 54 receptions and 474 yards last season. Bottom line, if you are on the field and eligible to catch the football, you will be utilized.

Something They Don't Do So Well

Stop the run. Last season, the Boilermakers allowed over 190 yards rushing per game, and that was without Ohio State and Michigan on the schedule. This season, they return nearly everybody, so you have to assume the defense will be better--but so will the competition. If you can't stop the run in the Big Ten, it won't really matter how potent your offense is because your defense will be worn down from being trampled. There is promise on this defense, but the coaching staff would definitely like to see some players step up and not allow the same thing to happen again. Head coach Joe Tiller has gone on record saying he thinks this defense will surprise some folks.

What's Improved?

Curtis Painter's decision-making. There are quite a few factors that play into Painter being a better quarterback this season. The first would be the fact that co-offensive coordinator Ed Zaunbrecher has been with the team over a full year now. He was brought on in the spring of 2006, so he was still learning as he was teaching. Now he knows Painter, and Painter knows him. Along with the teaching, comes Painter's improved ability to read defenses. It was a problem for him last year, as evidenced by his 19 interceptions. The staff would like to see that number cut in half this season, and don't be surprised if it's close. Also, Painter and his receivers have spent much of the offseason working together to build their chemistry. That's incredibly important for an offense that relies on quick passing and quick thinking. Everything is pointing to an even better passing team this season. And let's not forget that Curtis Painter set a Purdue record for passing yards in season last season with 3,985.

What's Gotten Worse?

Pass rush. You don't lose 26.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks from Anthony Spencer and come out better for it.

Anything Else We Should Know About?

A pair and no spare. Running backs Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor will probably handle 98% of all carries made by the running backs this season. And Joe Tiller would like to see them split that load evenly. Last season, Sheets averaged eleven carries per game and Taylor averaged eight. Ideally, Tiller would probably like them both around eleven. That should be doable, as there will be more carries available this season with the Boilermakers putting a huge focus on limiting turnovers in 2007.

Anything Else?

Kicking improvement. Last season, true freshman Chris Summers walked onto the football team and earned the job as the starting place-kicker. He subsequently abused the uprights to the tune of an 8-20 season on field goal attempts. However, his 40% conversion rate did put him 17th on Purdue's all-time list for field goal percentage. Summers has worked consistently and constantly to improve, and he has. But it remains to be seen if he can be counted on yet.

One Prediction

Tight end Dustin Keller will lead the team in touchdown receptions.

Did you know (Media Guide factoid)

1) Indiana means "the land of the Indians"; 2) According to the media guide, the Boilermakers lost to Maryland in the Florida Citrus Bowl last year (it was actually the Champs Sports Bowl.)

Coach Speak

What Joe Tiller says: "I think the consensus is that the Big Ten is healthy with the eleven teams. Unless a team can come in and really add something, like Penn State, we're better off without expanding."

What Joe Tiller means: "I think the consensus is that the Big Ten is healthy with the eleven teams. Unless a team can come in totally convinced of their massive awesomeness and ability to dominate a conference after doing the same to the likes of Temple and Pitt, we're better off without expanding."

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