Football
BCS Preview - Big Ten
By Jeff Amey

For part four of our look around the BCS conferences, we're going to focus on the Big Ten. Gone are the days of power running offenses (though the perception is still there). Seven of the teams in the conference ran a good portion of their offense from spread formations last season, and there is little reason to think that number is going to go down this season.

2006 should end up being the year of the quarterback in the Big 10. Seven of the top eight teams contending for the conference title are returning their quarterback from last year, including early Heisman hopefuls Troy Smith at Ohio State, Drew Tate at Iowa, and Drew Stanton at Michigan State.

Depending on how dominant Ohio State ends up being after all the pre-season hype, the conference race could be either a runaway or a log-jam at the top. With all of the experienced offense coming back to the conference, this will probably end up being a wide-open race. Let's take a look at where the media consensus has everyone finishing.

Media Consensus Big Ten Pre-season standings

1) Ohio State
2) Michigan
3) Iowa
4) Penn State
5) Michigan State
6) Wisconsin
7) Purdue
8) Minnesota
9) Northwestern
10) Illinois
11) Indiana

Now for the predictions.

1) Ohio State Buckeyes
Last Season: 10-2 (7-1) Tied 1st Big Ten
Returning Starters: 10 (7 off, 2 def, P)
Toughest Game: Sept. 9 at Texas
BCS Out of conference schedule: at Texas, vs. Cincinnati

It seems strange to pick a team to win a conference that returns only 10 starters from the season before. In general, teams that return as few players as the Buckeyes do tend to struggle, especially early in the season. The Buckeyes, however, return players to the offense that should make them explosive enough to cover for a relatively inexperienced defense. How well, and quickly, that defense develops will go a long way to determining whether or not the Buckeyes are able to live up to the lofty pre-season expectations. The schedule is not going to make things any easier, with tough road tests against Texas, Iowa, and Michigan State on the slate.

2) Michigan Wolverines
Last Season: 7-5 (5-3) Tied 3rd Big Ten
Returning Starters: 18 (8 off, 8 def, K,P)
Toughest Game: Nov. 18 at Ohio State
BCS Out of conference schedule: vs. Vanderbilt, at Notre Dame

The Wolverines should have a really good team this season, with most of the offense and defense returning from a team that lost five games by a total of 21 points. Returning are junior QB Chad Henne, HB Mike Hart, HB Kevin Grady, and receivers Steve Breaston and Mario Manningham to lead an offense that should have little trouble moving the ball on paper. The Wolverines must hold up better in big situations this season, however. Four of the five losses by Michigan last year came on late drives the defense was unable to stop. The Wolverine's main obstacle this season will be their schedule, as they have Notre Dame and Ohio State on the road, and miss only Illinois and Purdue on the conference slate. As inconsistant as the Wolverines have been over the past 10 seasons, this could be another five loss team or a National Championship contender.

3) Michigan State Spartans
Last Season: 5-6 (2-6) 9th Big Ten
Returning Starters: 14 (6 off, 6 def, K, P)
Toughest Game: Oct. 7 at Michigan
BCS Out of conference schedule: at Pittsburgh, vs. Notre Dame

Once again, the Spartans enter 2006 with what should be a good offense. Quarterback Drew Stanton is one of the best in the country, and should have another big year in a conference that will probably spend another season not being known for tough defense. In the recent past, not being known for a tough defense has also been a good way to describe the Spartans and that might not change this season. If it doesn't, finishing third in the conference is highly overrating them, so I'm guessing the will defense will be improved. Special teams has also been a weakness under Coach John L. Smith, but this team has nowhere to go but up after the disaster of last season. If the Spartans pull off another upset against Notre Dame, look for it to springboard Michigan State to a good season, barring another late-season collapse.

4) Iowa Hawkeyes
Last Season: 7-5 (5-3) Tied 3rd Big Ten
Returning Starters: 16 (7 off, 7 def, K, P)
Toughest Game: Oct. 21 at Michigan
BCS Out of conference schedule: at Syracuse, vs. Iowa State

The Hawkeyes will also be returning a great quarterback in Drew Tate, and could make a run at the conference title should Michigan and Ohio State not live up to their potential this season. The schedule is favorable, with a trip to Michigan as the only tough away game on the schedule. So why do I pick them below Michigan State? I feel they lose the same amount of conference games and they don't play each other, so why not have a little fun with it? The Hawkeyes will probably play on January 1st or later to end the season and could represent the conference as a second BCS team.

5) Purdue Boilermakers
Last Season: 5-6 (3-5) 8th Big Ten
Returning Starters: 11 (7 off, 4 def)
Toughest Game: Sept. 30 at Notre Dame
BCS Out of conference schedule: at Notre Dame

Last season, the Boilermakers entered the year with very high expectations based on a veteran team returning to a very favorable schedule that didn't include Ohio State or Michigan. The schedule is much the same, but the veteran team is not as veteran heading into 2006 as it was heading into 2005. Coach Joe Tiller shook up the coaching staff after last season's debacle, and it might end up being a good thing. The Boilermakers were beginning to look stale and a fresh approach might be what they need to take advantage of their schedule. There should be enough offense to get back into the bowl picture, but the defense and QB Curtis Painter's inconsistancy will probably hold them back from making a run at the conference title.

6) Penn State Nittany Lions
Last Season: 11-1 (7-1) Tied 1st Big Ten
Returning Starters: 11 (5 off, 4 def, K, P)
Toughest Game: Sept. 23 at Ohio State
BCS Out of conference schedule: at Notre Dame

Last season the Nittany Lions came out of nowhere to win the conference and represent the Big Ten as champion (by tie-breakers). Most of the players that made that run possible are gone now. Coming back are the exciting freshmen (now sophomores) recievers that infused some life into the Penn State passing game and a Butkus award winning linebacker coming off of a knee injury and little else of note. How far the Nittany Lions fall will depend on how well the new defense meshes together while the offense (with a new QB and four new offensive linemen) gels. A return to a minor bowl is most likely, but it's not inconcievable that Penn State finishes the season with a losing record.

7) Wisconsin Badgers
Last Season: 10-3 (5-3) Tied 3rd Big Ten
Returning Starters: 13 (3 off, 8 def, K, P)
Toughest Game: Sept. 23 at Michigan
BCS Out of conference schedule: none

Head Coach Bret Bielema inherited a pretty tough situation for his first season after Barry Alvarez' 16 year run as Wisconsin's coach. The Badgers scored the most points in school history for a season in 2005, but most of that offense is gone. One of the few holdovers is QB John Stocco, which will add a little stability in an otherwise very shaky situation. The Badgers do return a lot on defense, but this wasn't exactly a strength last season, so it remains to be seen how much that experience helps. A bowl game is probable due to a ridiculously easy out of conference schedule, but a run at the conference title is at least a year or two away.

8) Minnesota Golden Gophers
Last Season: 7-5 (4-4) 7th Big Ten
Returning Starters: 14 (7 off, 5 def, K, P)
Toughest Game: Oct. 28 at Ohio State
BCS Out of conference schedule: at California

Another season and the formula will change little from what it has been in Minnesota since Glen Mason took over as Head Coach. The difference will be that there will be no Center Greg Eslinger and Guard Mark Setterstrom (both four year starters), or a halfback that has had proven success in the system. That might mean that the Gophers have to rely a little more on the passing game than in the recent past, but don't expect Minnesota to stray too far. A bigger quesion is if the defense will show any kind of a pulse. The Gophers haven't produced a strong defense in any of Glen Mason's nine seasons. Seeings how the Gophers play a tougher schedule than normal this season (at California, at Ohio State, at Michigan State), this could be a step back for Minnesota this year.

9) Northwestern Wildcats
Last Season: 7-5 (5-3) Tied 3rd Big Ten
Returning Starters: 15 (7 off, 7 def, K)
Toughest Game: Oct. 28 at Michigan
BCS Out of conference schedule: none

Before the untimely death of Coach Randy Walker, I had the Wildcats finishing much higher in the conference. He had continued the relative success of predecessor Gary Barnett, and built a solid foundation for the Wildcats to improve on. Now it falls to new Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald to continue what Walker started, and he steps into a tough situation as far as team chemistry goes. This will go one of two ways, either the team will come together through the tragedy, or fall apart and cash it in when they hit some adversity. I'm going to guess they come together, but it won't be enough to overcome the graduation of QB Brett Basanez. The Wildcats have a decent chance at a minor bowl again, also due to a ridiculously easy out of conference schedule, but won't be a player in the conference race.

10) Illinois Fighting Illini
Last Season: 2-9 (0-8) 11th Big Ten
Returning Starters: 21 (10 off, 10 def, K)
Toughest Game: Nov. 4 vs. Ohio State
BCS Out of conference schedule: at Rutgers, vs. Syracuse

If nothing else, the Illini have a wealth of experience coming back from last season. That might not be the best of things for a team that gave up more than 30 points in all but one game last season, and scored more than 30 only twice. The average margin of loss in conference games was 32.1 points in those eight games. Coach Ron Zook has a massive rebuilding project with this team, but has put together a decent foundation of a couple of good recruiting classes and a young group of core players. Illinois fans should have to suffer through only one more really bad season before things finally start to get better.

11) Indiana Hoosiers
Last Season: 4-7 (1-7) 10th Big Ten
Returning Starters: 14 (7 off, 6 def, P)
Toughest Game: Oct. 21 at Ohio State
BCS Out of conference schedule: vs. Connecticut

The Hoosiers should be able repeat last year's four wins, but there is little chance of any more than that. Winning more than one conference game would be a major accomplishment. The Hoosiers do have a few weapons to rely on, mainly QB Blake Powers and WR James Hardy (though there have been question marks about Hardy being able to play in 2006). The Hoosiers will also take a few strides if they are able to improve on a defense that finished near the bottom of most NCAA categories last season. Indiana loses most of their front seven on defense, but return the entire secondary.

Conference Outlook

The big question is: Are the Buckeyes as good as everyone thinks they are? If they are, then Ohio State should win the conference and possibly play for the National Championship if they're able to get past Texas on September 9th. If they aren't, the race is wide open.

Because of the quarterback experience coming back to the conference and the relative weakness of the conference's defenses, it's not hard to envision a scenario where there is a three or four way tie at the top, with the winner ending up with two losses.

Looking at the conference schedules as a whole, this is probably the weakest slate of out of conference games the Big Ten will play in recent memory. Other than the Ohio State-Texas matchup and four games with Notre Dame, there is little to be excited about in the first few weeks of the season. There are only 14 games with teams from BCS conferences (10 if you leave out Notre Dame) and 7 games scheduled against 1AA foes. With the advent of a 12 game schedule, there is no excuse for not schedule a few more compelling matchups every season.

Another question: Will the Heisman Trophy winner come from the Big Ten? Troy Smith and Ted Ginn are frontrunners, but Drew Tate, Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, and Mike Hart could all have a say in it by the end of the season. This could be the best group of offensive talent the Big Ten has ever amassed in its long history.

Next up...the Pac-10.

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