Football
Q & A With Tom Orr on The Game
By The-Ozone Staff

With kickoff of The Game less than 48 hours away, the OZone decided to get the enemy’s perspective on what to expect on Saturday.

Tom Orr exchanged e-mails with Brian from Mgoblog who has managed to overcome his clear educational shortcomings (kidding… kidding) to run one of the most popular independent Michigan sites on the internet.

The topics ranged from the season on the whole, to injuries, to predictions for the game.

As the representative of the home team, Brian got to ask the first questions.

Brian (mgoblog): You've watched every Michigan game this year. What were your personal expectations going into the season? Do you think Michigan has underachieved?

Tom (The OZone): Going into the year, I thought this was a pretty typical Michigan team—probably two losses somewhere along the line, but solid on both sides of the ball. I also thought that there was a chance (not a great chance, but a chance), given their schedule, that they could run the table.

OSU at home, Penn State at home, Notre Dame at home, Minnesota at home… that’s the recipe for a great year. The only glaring landmine was playing Iowa in Kinnick Stadium.

Remember, before the year the trip to Madison didn’t look particularly daunting to most people, myself included.

Going on the basis of my expectation of a two-loss season, I don’t really think it’s fair to say this team has underachieved. There are people every year who think teams are going to run the table, then get all ticked off when it doesn’t happen.

This team had some question marks, especially on defense, and I don’t think perfection is a fair standard to hold them to. That was a miscalculation by the prognosticators, not a bad season by the team.

The notion of underachieving is particularly unfair when you consider the injuries this team has suffered this year. It’s pretty remarkable when you think about it; for at least a stretch of a few games, and in some cases for the majority of the season, this team lost its star tailback (Mike Hart), arguably its best offensive lineman (Jake Long), another offensive lineman (Mike Kolodziej), its biggest offensive play-maker (Steve Breaston, who I’m convinced was about 75% all year), one of its promising wide receivers (Adrian Arrington), its best defensive lineman (LaMarr Woodley), and three safeties (Ryan Mundy, Willis Barringer, Brandent Englemon). That doesn’t even get into losing Lawrence Reid in the spring, getting about a half of a season out of Gabe Watson, and all the other dings, bangs and bumps to guys like Jeremy Van Alstyne, Chris Graham, etc.

Looking back, I think this team has been more crippled by injuries than any Michigan team since 1984. That team never really circled the wagons and finished 6-6. This team is going into the final weekend of the season with the entirely realistic possibility of playing in a BCS bowl game.

I think the idea that they’ve underachieved is probably more than a little misguided.

Brian (mgoblog): Obviously the offense has been a major disappointment. In my tape reviews I've singled out Henne and the interior offensive line as the major sources of the problems. Do you think that's accurate?

Tom (The OZone): I think the problems for this offense all start with that line, and again, some of that has to be chalked up to losing Long for most of the year (he still hasn’t played an entire game), and losing other guys for parts of the season.

When you’ve got a guy like Rueben Riley playing right tackle, you’re going to have problems running the ball and protecting the passer, and that’s what Michigan had to deal with for a bunch of weeks in the middle of the season. Riley’s probably not a bad fit in the middle of that line somewhere, but he just looked completely out-classed against some of the better defensive ends in the league.

I think to some degree, Matt Lentz has followed David Baas’ footsteps as a guy who was highly touted, but sometimes failed to live up to the hype. Kraus (at center) has been banged up and is still in his first year as a starter. Henige at the other guard position has been okay, but far from outstanding. Stenavich has been pretty good, but he’s only one guy.

Michigan’s line is an above-average Big Ten unit, but they’re not anywhere in the neighborhood of some of the dominant, road-grader lines they’ve had in the past. That makes it tougher to run the ball, which in turn makes it tougher to throw the ball.

It seems like whenever Hart gets a handoff, he either gets hit at the line or about a yard or two downfield. To his credit, he gets low and drives through guys and always falls forward, so you look at the stat sheet and he’s averaging 4.7 per rush. But he’s really earning those yards.

In the passing game, Henne’s not getting hammered by pass rushers, but it seems like he’s getting knocked down a little more this year than in the last couple seasons (I don’t know if the stats will bear that out—it’s just something that has occurred to me at times this fall).

Certainly, Henne has had his struggles. He looked dreadful against Notre Dame and dreadful again in Wisconsin. He’s clearly got some mechanical issues that they’ve supposedly been working through (arm angle, release point and stride length have all been mentioned this year), but I remain convinced that Hart’s absence has had at least something to do with Henne’s issues.

His worst games have come on days when Hart is not playing; you can chalk that up to some mental dependence on Hart or the fact that his absence allows defenses to focus more on the passing game, but I think there’s a definite link there.

I know you’re not a big believer in that “security blanket” theory, but we keep hearing how Hart is such a commanding presence in the huddle, and how guys look into his eyes and get inspired… blah, blah, blah. If there’s any truth at all to that, one would think that when he’s not there, there would be some negative effect from the loss of that presence/ those eyes… whatever.

Brian (mgoblog): Ohio State's defense has been almost entirely impregnable save for that strange 31 point outburst by Minnesota that featured 396 yards for Brian Friggin' Cupito. How the hell did that happen? Is there anything there that Michigan will be looking to exploit?

Tom (The OZone): The Minnesota game was sort of a weird confluence of circumstances that added up to an ugly performance.

For one, the defense was obviously keyed primarily toward stopping the run, leaving the corners out on islands on a lot of plays. Also, Minnesota’s receivers (especially Ernie Wheelwright) are tall, and can create matchup problems on jump-balls, even against a 6-foot-1 corner like Ashton Youboty. Add in the fact that Bryan Cupito played the game of his life and you have a recipe for an offensive explosion.

I haven’t watched that tape since the week of that game, but I remember one of the times Youboty got beat, he tried to jump a quick out, and the guy gave him double-move and got deep for a big play. On at least one of the deep balls, Cupito just shot-putted one up into pretty good coverage, and the Minnesota receiver came back and made a great play (that was the one that got them down to the 1 and set up a touchdown). It wasn’t like he was constantly missing tackles or getting toasted deep on every other play.

Of course, what set that up was Minnesota’s ability to run the ball. Maroney had a long run and put up 100 yards before the half. That forced the Buckeyes to dedicate more guys to stopping that run game and left them vulnerable deep.

Certainly, Michigan will be looking to do the same this week. If they can get Hart established early, that could set up some big plays in the passing game.

Michigan State did the same thing, running the ball decently early then using the eerily-accurate Drew Stanton to get it downfield. If Henne plays the way Stanton did in that first half, there’s no way to defend it.

You can throw on this defense, but you need to be able to run the ball a little, and your quarterback needs to be pretty accurate. Stanton carved this team up because he was hitting guys on the numbers all day and getting time to throw.

Last week another pretty good quarterback, Brett Basanez, had about three good minutes, then spent much of the rest of the day running for his life, throwing into tight coverage and piling up wildly unimpressive numbers.

The defense is not consistently terrible like Michigan State’s, but if you can do certain things well, you can attack them.

Brian (mgoblog): It seems like Ohio State's extremely thin at corner past Youboty. Tyler Everett's a converted safety and then you guys have who exactly?

Tom (The OZone): A true freshman named Malcolm Jenkins has been playing a lot this year. He didn’t play last week, and was shuffled down the depth chart this week, but if he can go, he’s a decent cover guy.

You’ll see Brandon Mitchell, who’s one of the backup safeties, on the field as the nickelback Saturday. There’s another true freshman, Jamario O’Neal, who has played on some passing downs this year.

Generally, I would guess that the defense is going to try to keep its strength (the linebackers) on the field as much as possible, even if it means playing a 4-3-4 consistently against a three-wide receiver set.

You might not see much of that cornerback depth unless someone gets hurt.

Brian (mgoblog): Michigan's running game has been good with Hart and mediocre without him, but this week they're clashing with an entirely different animal than your Northwesterns and Indianas. Assuming Hart is fully healthy, how do you think he'll do relative to last year (around 3 YPC for 60 yards and one 40 yard screen)?

Tom (The OZone): I’m not necessarily the person to ask, because I didn’t think Chris Perry was going to be able to run on the Buckeye defense two years ago. However, assuming Hart is 100% or close to it, I think he would be hard-pressed not to match or top last year’s numbers.

There is a significant question in my mind about just how rusty he’s going to be, and how healthy he is. I know he’s probably running in practice all week, but the holes he’s seeing on Wednesday are going to look a lot different from the size of the holes he’ll see Saturday (at least I sure hope they do). He’s still relatively young and has really never gotten himself into a groove at any point this season.

Still, he’s a good back. As I mentioned before, he’s going to fall forward for a few yards even if you hit him right in the hole. If this defense form-tackles all afternoon (they have shown that they know how, but occasionally forget), they could contain him, maybe even holding him to 75-100 yards.

If Hart gets more than 130 yards, Michigan almost certainly wins.

Brian (mgoblog): How can I put this diplomatically... how in the damn hell is Troy Smith the fourth most efficient passer in the nation? His statistics are somewhat mindboggling: 10 completions for 249 yards versus MSU, 114 for 226 versus Indiana, 14 for 233 against Minnesota, 13 for 298 against Illinois. How much of that is Smith, how much is it Ginn and Holmes, and how much is four crappy defenses?

Tom (The OZone): I’m going to have to give the Abe Simpson “a little from column A, a little from column B” routine, along with another couple columns thrown into the mix as well.

Column A: It’s almost certainly partly the fact that Smith has settled in as the full-time starting quarterback, getting all the reps and “not looking over your shoulder” confidence that comes with that lofty perch.

Column B: It doesn’t hurt that guys like Ginn and Holmes have repeatedly shown the ability to take a 10-yard out and turn it into a 60-yard touchdown pass.

Column C: Part of that is the fact that Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan State, Northwestern and Illinois are not exactly the ’85 Chicago Bears on the defensive side of the field. Especially in the MSU game, it was crappy tackling that helped Smith throw for eleventy billion yards on just a handful of short routes.

Column D: Antonio Pittman’s emergence (may be somewhat linked to column C, above), which has forced defenses to respect the fact that yes, Ohio State actually has a tailback who’s good at tackle football for the first time in three years.

Frankly, I don’t think that anyone can tell you what the exact mixture of these four elements is. There’s probably at least some of each factored in there.

And with all due respect to the fine folks they’ll face on Saturday, if the offense blows up for another orgy of points and yardage, I think there will still be some lingering questions from a few corners about just how good they really are. Unless they get a chance to face Miami or some other similarly stout defensive team in a bowl game, I think it may remain one of those great unanswered questions.

If they get shut down this weekend, we will have our answer. Of course, I won’t be too concerned about that, as I’ll be on top of the press box at Michigan Stadium trying to figure out if the impact with the ground will allow me the sweet, merciful release of death or just add extreme physical pain to the mental and emotion anguish that will already be coursing through my body.

Brian (mgoblog): How good is this offense in reality? It's hard to tell with the last five games against pushover defenses. (Granted, Michigan did not burn the field up against Minnesota.)

Tom (The OZone): Well… we know they’re damn good against shaky defenses. This (and the next question) all really have the same answer as the last one.

I like the fact that the offensive line is getting a good push. I like the fact that Troy Smith now looks like he’s taking time to at least get to the second receiver on his progressions before tucking and running with the ball. I like the fact that Pittman is suddenly blowing people up, running over guys, and running past others. I like the fact that the coaches seem to be making a real effort to get guys like the tight ends and backs involved in the passing game.

I think their consistency over the last month has been an indication that they’re at least a good offense. Are they great? I’d love to be arguing this point next week with another 40 point game on the list of evidence.

Brian (mgoblog): I have essentially the same question about Antonio Pittman: is he for real? He's ran wild of late--against those sketchy defenses--but Penn State and Texas clobbered him pretty good. How would you rate him in the Big Ten?

Tom (The OZone): He’s behind Maroney, for sure. He’s behind a healthy Michael Hart (remember him?) as well. Calhoun has been so good this year, but a lot of it came against dreadful defenses.

Beyond that? I have a hard time getting too scared about Albert Young, Tony Hunt, Jarod Void, Jason Teague, or any of the other guys in that next clump of “good but not great” backs.

Based on what we’ve seen out of Pittman over the last month or so, I think you could make a decent argument that he’s number three or four on the list, and maybe even a spot higher if you take Hart’s injuries into account.

Brian (mgoblog): How has the offensive line performed, especially true freshman Alex Boone? How do you think they'll hold up against the Michigan defensive line?

Tom (The OZone): Boone has been a pleasant surprise, at least to me. All the recruitniks had him pencilled in as a first-year starter, but given the incredibly unreliable nature of recruiting and recruiting coverage, I was a little leery of lumping him in as “the next Orlando Pace” rather than “the next Derek Morris.”

I don’t know how much you’re going to see Boone. He was really playing recently because the normal RT, Kirk Barton, was banged up. He was back last week in some spot duty. You’ll probably see some combination of the two on Saturday. That could help them stay fresh against LaMarr Woodley, which would make me happy.

The line on the whole has been pretty good this year—they’re opening holes and giving Smith time to throw. I don’t think they’re going to blow Michigan’s line off the ball by any stretch of the imagination, but I think they’re going to be able to move the ball on the ground at least somewhat reliably (4 ypc, maybe? Please?).

I know Alan Branch and Gabe Watson have looked great at times, but Woodley is the guy on Michigan’s d-line that just scares the crap out of you. I would assume that OSU will keep a back or TE in to help block, at least until they can figure out how reliably they’ll be able to contain him without the extra assistance.

Brian (mgoblog): Do you think Michigan has a better handle on mobile quarterbacks?

Tom (The OZone): Better? Sure, but that’s like saying France has a better handle on defending against Germany. “Better” doesn’t set the bar very high.

Troy Smith is not going to go off for 175 rushing yards or whatever he had last year, simply because I think Michigan is going to sell out to stop that from happening. There’s going to be at least one spy on him on every play.

Mobile quarterbacks have still given that defense some problems this year, especially when they’re able to roll out and throw.

The problem is not fixed, but it won’t be nearly as glaring an issue on Saturday. My guess is that Smith should finish with 50-60 yards rushing. If he gets more than that, the Wolverines could be in trouble.

Brian (mgoblog): How do you think Ohio State will attack the Michigan defense?

Tom (The OZone): Based on the fact that I think Michigan is going to sell itself out to stop Pittman and Smith from running the ball, the Buckeyes probably have to stretch the field a little bit early to keep those safeties from creeping up. If I was Jim Tressel, I would seriously consider running Ginn and Holmes on fly routes on opposite sides of the field, and sending Gonzalez on a 20-yard post on the first play of the game. Just send a message that you’d better not get any ideas about cramming eight or nine guys in the box. You need to keep taking those shots every now and then, when you see those safeties getting nosy. It doesn’t always need to be a bomb, but a 20-yard out or slant every drive or so would go a long way toward opening things up for the run game.

If they can get those guys to back out, then look for a steady diet of runs up the gut (if they can get Watson out of the way), possibly off that fake end-around to Ginn, and plenty of those little speed option plays they’ve been running.

Tressel is still Tressel. You’re not going to see Smith putting the ball up 40 times on Saturday unless the Buckeyes fall way behind. He’ll probably run, run, run and try to set up that fake-option pass that killed MSU.

But he’s probably going to have to throw it early to get the run game going.

Brian (mgoblog): How many opportunities will Breaston get? Are Huston's kickoffs returnable? How is your punter doing?

Tom (The OZone): Huston had something like 17 kickoffs in a row that went for touchbacks this month. He had a couple that were returned last weekend, but part of that was due to the fact that he was kicking into a stiff wind. I’m also not sold on the fact that the coaches didn’t tell him to kick short once or twice, just to get the kick coverage guys some game experience.

For most of the year, they’ve been like outfielders in one of those Little League games where the pitcher has hit puberty before anyone else and is consequently just blowing the ball past everyone. You want those outfielders ready on the off-chance that one of the hitters has hit puberty, too, and Steve Breaston has a 5 o’clock shadow in the batter’s box.

The punter (redshirt freshman A.J. Trapasso) has been pretty good this year. He had one screwy play early in the year where he dropped the ball on a snap, but other than that he’s been solid. The gunners (especially #14, a backup DB named Antonio Smith) have been good this year. They need to have a great game Saturday.

It would not bother me at all if Trapasso just kicked it out of bounds 35 yards down the field all day. I think Michigan is much more dangerous with the ball in Breaston’s hands on a return than they are with the offense against the OSU defense.

Brian (mgoblog): Finally: what's your prediction?

Tom (The OZone): Ya know… I really don’t have a feel for this game. Normally, I at least have a feeling about how it’s going to turn out, even if it turns out to be completely wrong. This year, I think there are so many variables that it’s almost impossible to know how it’ll play out.

Is Hart healthy? Is the OSU offense for real? How much will it help to have Barringer and Englemon back at safety, instead of the Big Play twins? How will Michigan respond to their back-to-back bye weeks? What happens if Garret Rivas trots onto the field down two points in the final seconds, with a swirling wind, needing a 44-yarder to win the game?

I think most people would probably agree that on paper, the Buckeyes have a better team right now. I would take the OSU offense against the Michigan defense (but not by much), the OSU defense against the Michigan offense (but not by nearly as much as you might think), and the OSU special teams.

But we all know how often (2004, 2001, 1996, 1995, 1993… and maybe one or two others in between) the better team on paper loses this game.

Look at 1997 and 2002. Those teams combined to win 1.5 national championships (zing!). One needed to intercept a pass at the goal line on the final play of the game to pull out a win. The other needed a quarterback to go color-blind, then crap down his leg for 60 minutes to win.

This one is in Ann Arbor, and as nice as 2001 was, this will be my fifth time watching the Buckeyes play there in person, and I’ve already had three crappy, miserable drives home.

I guess I’m contractually obligated to pick the Buckeyes, but I get the feeling that either OSU wins by 10 or more, or Michigan finds a way to pull this out in the end.

OSU 27, Michigan 13 (If I’m wrong, I’ll be sobbing too loudly to hear about it anyway)

Next, we turned the tables, putting Brian on the hot seat.

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