Football
Michigan Monday
By Tom Orr

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Michigan fans must be going insane trying to figure out this year’s team.

This looks like a completely different team from week-to-week, half-to-half and sometimes even play-to-play.

Chad Henne is throwing perfect touch passes on deep balls, and then he’s throwing way behind or above guys on much easier throws.

The offensive line is so porous that it looks like even mediocre opponents are holding a Tupperware party in the backfield, then the line turns into a cohesive unit against a solid defense.

The running back who never fumbles has put it on the ground two weeks in a row, while the true freshman who had put it on the ground repeatedly for a month has been hanging onto it like his life depends on it.

The receivers and tight ends go from butterfingered klutzes to sticky-fingered Spidermen-in-training.

The defensive line is clogging up the middle, then they’re getting gashed for holes you could drive a midsize car through.

The linebackers are great tackling machines, then they’re missing tackles all over the place.

The defensive backs are making spectacular interceptions, then getting flagged for interference on key plays and running themselves out of position on long rushes.

The kicker is tying career longs with clutch kicks that clear the crossbar by 10 yards, and also letting fly a wounded duck that looks like they pulled a 42-year-old insurance salesman out of the crowd as part of a contest to win snow tires.

The defense gives up 3 points in 45 minutes, then the team yields 15 points in less than 20 seconds.

They’re losing to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Notre Dame. They’re beating Penn State.

I will be the first to admit that I have absolutely no idea what to expect the rest of the way. They could beat Iowa by 40 next week, or get shut out and suffer one of the most humiliating defeats in school history.

They could run the table and maybe even sneak into the BCS or they could lose at Iowa and Northwestern, and need a win over the Buckeyes just to qualify for any bowl.

Anyone who says they completely understand this team and know what kind of game it’s going to play next weekend is lying to you. I doubt that the team even understands themselves.

When Michigan had the ball: The patchwork Michigan offensive line has struggled against mediocre defenses this year, but played surprisingly well against a good Penn State unit on Saturday. They didn’t open up huge rushing lanes on most plays, but they gave Henne enough time to throw the ball.

A lot of people expected PSU DE Tamba Hali to spend enough time wrapped up with Henne to become common-law spouses. Hali did manage one sack, but was not able to mount any kind of consistent pressure. And with Michael Hart carrying the ball, the line doesn’t need to give him much more than a crease, and they were usually able to do that.

They did get a scare when LT Adam Stenavich went down with an ankle injury, but he was able to return.

Michael Hart spent the day doing very Michael Hart-ish things. He caught screen passes (4 for 40 yards), he made something out of nothing on the ground (23 carries for 108 yards, many of them dragging defenders along for the ride) and was able to get not only the crowd, but also his teammates fired up with his play.

For the second week in a row, Hart also fumbled the ball, but the officials ruled him down and the replay crew chose not to stop play and take a lot of time to look at it. It was very similar to last weekend’s fumble—Hart lost the ball as he fell forward, just before his knees hit the ground. A Penn State player came out of the pile with the ball, but for the second week in a row, it didn’t count.

Kevin Grady looked good in limited duty, running five times for 25 yards, and steamrolling PSU’s all-everything LB Paul Posluszny on one carry. More important, he continues to hang onto the football after contracting a nasty case of fumblitis earlier this fall.

With both of those guys, you’re not going to bring them down with a big hit. You need a form tackle, or failing that, you need to hang on and wait for help.

The Wolverines also picked up a couple nice gains by lining WR Antonio Bass up at quarterback (as they have in the past) and running him. A sweep off left tackle netted more than 20 yards and a draw gained a handful. The Buckeyes can expect to see Bass (or maybe Breaston) back there at least once next month, and should remember that as former high school quarterbacks, both can also throw the ball a little.

WR Jason Avant continues to prove himself a valuable possession guy. He caught eight passes for 75 yards, and if it’s not a screen pass, he’s usually the first guy Chad Henne looks to on third down.

But Avant’s play was overshadowed by that of true freshman Mario Manningham. He caught only three balls all day, but two of them may have saved Michigan’s season.

The first came with a little over nine minutes left. The Wolverines had just given up 15 points in 17 seconds and trailed for the first time all day. That’s when Henne chucked up a deep ball, Manningham outran a stumbling PSU corner (Justin King), and made a spectacular fingertip grab for a touchdown.

The second will have Michigan fans forever comparing Manningham to Mercury Hayes (no, in a good way). With the ball on the 10 and one second on the clock, Henne zipped the ball to an open Manningham in the end zone. Touchdown. Ballgame.

Henne has not hooked up consistently with anyone on deep passes this year (he overshot Avant late in the game and has a running gag with Breaston where he throws it a yard and a half out of Breaston’s reach—gets a laugh every time), but Manningham is starting to step forward as a legitimate deep threat.

He caught a 25-yard score against Notre Dame, a 49-yard touchdown against Wisconsin, a 43-yarder against Michigan State and now a 33-yarder against Penn State. That gives him the three longest touchdown receptions of the year by a Michigan wideout and four of the top five (Jason Avant had a 26-yard score but that was against Eastern Michigan, which means it probably shouldn’t count). The moral of the story is that Manningham is good, he’s young, and if you’re a defense you might want to look at covering him. Unless someone wants to dig up Ed Martin and see if he likes football, we’ll probably have to deal with Manningham until at least the end of 2007. Yippee.

It seems like a lot of Michigan fans are now back on the Chad Henne bandwagon after a decent day against PSU (21-for-36, 212 yards, 2 scores, no picks). Some of that could be attributed to the fact that the coaching staff gave him a lot of easier throws (screens, quick hitters to receivers in soft coverage, short routes by tight ends) early in the game to get him comfortable.

He scrambled a few times for decent gains, but also got stripped by PSU’s Alan Zemaitis, who returned it for a touchdown and an 18-10 lead.

But Henne also made some questionable decisions, especially in the crucial final drive.

With the ball at the Penn State 16, only 18 seconds to play and one timeout left, Henne dumped the ball off to a tightly-covered Steve Breaston in the flat. Breaston (luckily) dropped the pass. Had he caught it, it probably would have burned a minimum of eight seconds to gain about one yard and forced Michigan to take its last timeout.

On the next play, with 12 seconds to play and the ball on the 16, Henne decided not to go to the end zone, and dumped off a six-yarder to Manningham. That took another six seconds off the clock without having any real chance of accomplishing the only goal there was—scoring a touchdown.

With six seconds to play and the ball at the 10, Henne threw it to a tightly-covered Breaston at the 5. Again, Breaston didn’t catch it, but it took the clock down to one second.

So to recap, Michigan had the ball at the 16 yard line with 18 seconds to play (time for three or maybe four plays), needing a touchdown, and never threw the ball within five yards of the end zone. Only one measly second and the benevolent finger of the clock operator came between this team and a 3-4 record, including 1-3 in the conference.

You can’t set everything up to rest on one play that may or may not happen. You need to be throwing the ball into the end zone earlier than that. There were receivers down there, Henne just didn’t go to them. Even if you need to force it into coverage, you’ve got to take a shot with six seconds to play, if not before. Otherwise, it’s like leaving a birdie putt three feet short of the cup.

That’s all forgotten now, of course, because of what Michigan did with that one second. All anyone is going to remember is the two passes to Manningham, followed by a whole lot of yelling and jumping around.

Yes, Henne is only a sophomore, and yes, he looked more like the “Good Henne” rather than the “Evil, Inconsistent Henne” for most of the game, but when you’re relying on the clock operator to not have his finger slip off the “stop” button (or your coach’s ability to whine his way into another couple seconds), you’re pressing your luck.

When Penn State had the ball: The Wolverines spent the first 45 minutes taking the concept of “bend but don’t break” to impressive heights.

They yielded a 13-play, 66-yard drive but no points (thanks to a missed field goal). They gave up a 12-play, 67-yard drive but no points (thanks to another missed field goal). They gave up 38 yards in just four plays, but no points (thanks to a fumble). They gave up 66 yards in seven plays, but only three points, when the Lions had to settle for a field goal.

They mixed in a couple easier stops as well, but those four drives add up to 36 plays, 237 yards and only three points.

Then, the 2005 Michigan defense showed up and gave up a 61-yard run (their second in two weeks) and a touchdown to a running quarterback. Later in the fourth quarter, they allowed a 12-play, 81-yard touchdown march (including a scramble by Michael Robinson to convert a 4th-and-7, and a pass interference call on CB Leon Hall to give up a 3rd-and-10), capped by another touchdown by a running quarterback.

Overall, the Lions out-rushed and out-passed the Wolverines, finished even in turnovers and scored a defensive touchdown to boot. And yet they lost the game.

The Wolverines actually did a reasonable job containing Robinson’s running for much of the afternoon. He finished with 17 carries for 67 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, but this wasn’t anything like the Drew Stanton/Vince Young/Troy Smith performances we’ve seen out of this unit in the past. That is to say running quarterbacks can still make big plays, but it doesn’t look like this year’s defense is going to get gashed quite as badly as they did last year.

Robinson was able to get plenty of time to throw by rolling out of the pocket, sometimes off of play-action. If you can get your quarterback outside and he’s comfortable throwing from there, that’s been a pretty good way to attack this defense.

Up front, ends LaMarr Woodley and Alan Branch are turning into an impressive set of bookends. Both seem to end up in the vicinity of the ballcarrier quite a bit, and were able to bring pressure off the edge in pocket passing situations. Both can force teams to keep a back or tight end in to help protect, even when the Wolverines don’t blitz.

The much-maligned linebackers held up better this week than last. David Harris finished another solid week with 10 tackles and Prescott Burgess made eight tackles and forced a fumble (getting named “player of the game” in the process). But Burgess ended up on the wrong end of two highlights, getting juked out of his jock on an option, and missing a tackle on a touchdown run by Robinson. The third member of the linebacking trio, Chris Graham, also dropped a sure interception in the end zone (although he might be excused since he has casts on both thumbs, like Jerry Seinfeld shut a car trunk on them).

The defensive backfield had an up-and-down day. Leon Hall had a key interception with less than four minutes to play in the game, but also got flagged for defensive holding and a crucial pass interference call that set up the Lions’ last touchdown.

Grant Mason was busy on the other corner, tying for the team lead with 10 tackles, but played reasonably well.

Both young safeties (Brandon Harrison and Jamar Adams) had problems again. You probably remember that Michigan’s top three safeties Ryan Mundy (out for the year), Willis Barringer (did not dress this week), and Brandent Englemon (dressed but did not play) are all hurt. Predictably, that led to some problems on the back half.

On Tony Hunt’s 61-yard run that set up PSU’s first score, both safeties looked like they were out of position. Harrison took an absolutely atrocious angle, allowing Hunt (who’s not exactly a burner) to blow past him for 40 extra yards. And just like last weekend’s 61-yard run by Minnesota’s Gary Russell, Adams seemed to run himself out of the play, continuing toward the line of scrimmage as if to keep backside contain, only after Hunt had already cut it upfield. Only Hall, who was the corner on the far side of the field, was able to run Hunt down, knocking him out at the two.

Michigan’s defense has been vulnerable to big plays over the last couple years, and safety play like that doesn’t help.

Michigan’s special teams: If you’re looking for Exhibit A in the case of “kicking is at least 50% mental”, look no further than Michigan kicker Garret Rivas.

He stuck a 35-yard field goal right down the middle in the first half. Then, just before halftime he kicked a 42-yarder so ugly that the announcers thought it had been blocked. It landed just short of the goal line (not the back line of the end zone—it hit around the 1 yard line), a little outside the left upright, and didn’t appear to ever get high enough off the ground to clear the crossbar. And it certainly didn’t appear on any replay that anyone got a finger on it.

So, of course, he came back out in the fourth quarter and tied his career long with a 47-yarder that looked like it would have been good from 57.

When Rivas is on, he’s one of the better kickers in the league. When he’s off, he looks like one of the worst. And when he’s trotting onto the field I don’t think anyone, including Rivas himself, has any idea which kind of kick he’s about to unleash.

Ross Ryan had a solid day punting the ball, and did a good job on kickoffs as well.

Steve Breaston ran one punt back for 23 yards, proving that he’s dangerous. So of course Penn State put a kickoff in his hands with under a minute left in the game, when Michigan desperately needed a big return. Breaston nearly broke it all the way, and delivered a 41-yard runback that gave the Wolverines possession near midfield to set up their dramatic finish. In fact, the Lions kicked it to Breaston (and not to Grant Mason on the other side of the field) all day, except for one that they kicked short.

What does it all mean? That it’s not a real good idea to settle for field goals against Michigan in Ann Arbor, especially if you don’t make them. Also, you should cover Manningham because he’s good. And don’t give this team a whole lot of time at the end of a game; they have enough weapons to make you regret it.

As for the rest of Michigan’s season, I don’t think anything would faze me right now. This team could easily run the table and perhaps contend for a share of the conference title and a BCS berth. Or they could fall on their butts this weekend in Iowa City, lose another game or two, and maybe miss out on a bowl game all together.

Despite this program’s recent struggles away from home (at least two road losses every year since 1999, and one already this year) my money is on a huge game from Michael Hart against that mediocre Iowa front this weekend and a stirring win.

They need to split their final four games (at Iowa, at Northwestern, Indiana, Ohio State) to finish 6-5 and go bowling in Nashville or Detroit.

If they win three of four to finish 7-4, they’ll probably end up in the Sun Bowl or Alamo Bowl.

The road to the big one:

Sept. 3: Michigan 33, Northern Illinois 17
Sept. 10: Notre Dame 17, Michigan 10
Sept. 17: Michigan 55, Eastern Michigan 0
Sept. 24: Wisconsin 23, Michigan 20
Oct. 1: Michigan 34, Michigan State 31 (OT)
Oct. 8: Minnesota 23, Michigan 20
Oct. 15: Michigan 27, Penn State 25
Oct. 22: @ Iowa
Oct. 29: @ Northwestern
Nov. 5: Idle
Nov. 12: Indiana
Nov. 19: Ohio State

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